Head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service – “We have studied…the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of Russia’s long-term plans…at least until 2030.”
you’ll see one or two new videos a week of Ukrainian men being kidnapped off of the streets and stuffed into a van
When it’s the police, we just call it “detained”, even though it’s the same thing. Saying “kidnapping” and “brutal measures” is a little saucy when this is exactly how the police where I live operate, too. We don’t have conscription or a war on right now, but we have in the past, and we might in the future.
the political benefit of holding onto that land for just a little longer is worth more than the lives of real human beings. you are a soldier and you are expendable
That’s pretty much the job description of a soldier. For example, this describes the recent American wars. They had lower tolerance for casualties, but that’s just because it was an optional war rather than an existential one.
It was less that OP pointed out this stuff, and more that their “friend in Kiev” apparently phones them up about this and doesn’t mention anything about the Russians who are perpetuating all this and could leave at any time.
Saying “kidnapping” and “brutal measures” is a little saucy when this is
Well, it is extreme. Let’s not pretend like it isn’t. Legal technicalities aside, it’s not a good look. People walking with their families down the street suddenly get ambushed and then thrown into a van? Old woman or wife trying to fight off the military recruiters?
The Russians don’t do this. The Americans didn’t do this back during Vietnam. Etc. It’s understandable because of the existential nature of this war, like you pointed out, but it is abnormal when you look at other drafts in other countries.
Part of the reason they’re having such a hard time is again, the recklessness with which they have, at certain points of this war, treated human life. Russia’s running into this same issue. Although Russia has a bigger population and is able to offer higher incentives in the form of payouts, along with a more centralized and mature propaganda system. Because of this, they haven’t had to rely on a draft and mobilization. They are still mostly a volunteer force.
They had lower tolerance for casualties, but that’s just because it was an optional war rather than an existential one.
Lower tolerance for casualties is a bit of an understatement. Over the course of 5 years or so there were less than 5,000 American deaths. Since 2022, we’re looking at a very conservative at least 100k dead from just the Russian side. The more generous estimates have 200k+ dead on both sides.
We’re talking at least an order of magnitude difference
That’s pretty much the job description of a soldier
When military strategy is controlled by the generals, they will prioritize manpower over political goals. When military strategy is controlled by the political regime, political goals become more important.
Retreating from a piece of land that has little strategic significance is the correct move so that you conserve resources and manpower. A soldier is a human being, a life. Not only does this have some sort of moral worth and should not be thrown away recklessly, it has real strategic value.
Both Russia and Ukraine in this war have made awe-inspiringly bad decisions at specific points. If I were a man who was being compelled to serve in either army, I would run away as far as possible.
It was less that OP pointed out this stuff, and more that their “friend in Kiev” apparently phones them up about this and doesn’t mention anything about the Russians who are perpetuating all this and could leave at any time.
The Russians don’t do this. The Americans didn’t do this back during Vietnam.
I’m pretty sure the Russians did in their last existential war. During Vietnam, Wikipedia says 3,250 were jailed for draft violations.
Jailing involves someone being taken by force to a place they don’t want to be, and if they don’t go voluntarily the police definitely will interrupt a family outing. I got detained when out with family once.
When military strategy is controlled by the generals, they will prioritize manpower over political goals.
All war has political goals (there’s a famous Clausewitz quote about that) and involves loss of manpower.
Part of the reason they’re having such a hard time is again, the recklessness with which they have, at certain points of this war, treated human life.
By both official figures and anecdote, multiple Russians die for every Ukrainian. You don’t achieve that with recklessness. Given that Ukraine has a quarter of the population but better supplies and training, it’s just good strategy to be as cautious as possible with personnel anyway.
When it’s the police, we just call it “detained”, even though it’s the same thing. Saying “kidnapping” and “brutal measures” is a little saucy when this is exactly how the police where I live operate, too. We don’t have conscription or a war on right now, but we have in the past, and we might in the future.
That’s pretty much the job description of a soldier. For example, this describes the recent American wars. They had lower tolerance for casualties, but that’s just because it was an optional war rather than an existential one.
It was less that OP pointed out this stuff, and more that their “friend in Kiev” apparently phones them up about this and doesn’t mention anything about the Russians who are perpetuating all this and could leave at any time.
Well, it is extreme. Let’s not pretend like it isn’t. Legal technicalities aside, it’s not a good look. People walking with their families down the street suddenly get ambushed and then thrown into a van? Old woman or wife trying to fight off the military recruiters?
The Russians don’t do this. The Americans didn’t do this back during Vietnam. Etc. It’s understandable because of the existential nature of this war, like you pointed out, but it is abnormal when you look at other drafts in other countries.
Part of the reason they’re having such a hard time is again, the recklessness with which they have, at certain points of this war, treated human life. Russia’s running into this same issue. Although Russia has a bigger population and is able to offer higher incentives in the form of payouts, along with a more centralized and mature propaganda system. Because of this, they haven’t had to rely on a draft and mobilization. They are still mostly a volunteer force.
Lower tolerance for casualties is a bit of an understatement. Over the course of 5 years or so there were less than 5,000 American deaths. Since 2022, we’re looking at a very conservative at least 100k dead from just the Russian side. The more generous estimates have 200k+ dead on both sides.
We’re talking at least an order of magnitude difference
When military strategy is controlled by the generals, they will prioritize manpower over political goals. When military strategy is controlled by the political regime, political goals become more important.
Retreating from a piece of land that has little strategic significance is the correct move so that you conserve resources and manpower. A soldier is a human being, a life. Not only does this have some sort of moral worth and should not be thrown away recklessly, it has real strategic value.
Both Russia and Ukraine in this war have made awe-inspiringly bad decisions at specific points. If I were a man who was being compelled to serve in either army, I would run away as far as possible.
I agree.
I’m pretty sure the Russians did in their last existential war. During Vietnam, Wikipedia says 3,250 were jailed for draft violations.
Jailing involves someone being taken by force to a place they don’t want to be, and if they don’t go voluntarily the police definitely will interrupt a family outing. I got detained when out with family once.
All war has political goals (there’s a famous Clausewitz quote about that) and involves loss of manpower.
By both official figures and anecdote, multiple Russians die for every Ukrainian. You don’t achieve that with recklessness. Given that Ukraine has a quarter of the population but better supplies and training, it’s just good strategy to be as cautious as possible with personnel anyway.