What began as the Musk-Trump rift over the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill” has expanded into a full on revolt between the GOP’s ascendant libertarian, anti-war faction and the big-spending, business-as-usual, pro-Israel crowd that many have historically identified as “neoconservative.”

Domestically, if Trump does proceed with direct military strikes on Iran, it will badly and perhaps permanently fracture the MAGA coalition. There are signs that Gabbard may already be on the way out. Tucker Carlson (who strongly favors the pro-Russia, anti-war position) interviewed Ted Cruz today, pressing him on why he was so supportive of Israel and ready to attack Iran.

If Elon Musk also decides to come out against intervention in Iran, it will provide cover to Vance, Gabbard, RFK Jr., Carlson, and the rest of the libertarian anti-war faction to start to undermine Trump, which may lead to impeachment or an effort to invoke the 25th Amendment.

But as with all things Trump 2.0, if you don’t like the crisis of the moment, wait ten minutes. It was just last week we were wondering if martial law would be invoked in Los Angeles. That worry, for a moment at least, feels like a distant memory.