A determined Wagner could topple Moscow, they aren’t entirely untrained meat grinder recruits like the Russian army. They’re trained, experienced, and moderately well equipped. Plus Russia is not capable of maintaining ground in Ukraine, keep Wagner out of the central oblasts, and keeping its chains on the chechyns, the kazaks, and the Belarusians, all at once. We’d see a second collapse of Russian command over the region and Russia would be reborn even smaller again.