1st Primary of the season (Iowa was a Caucus, not a primary… different creature).

Please direct all posts and comments related to the primary to this megapost!

Edit Polls closed at 8 PM Eastern

99% of Republican ballots are in:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/new-hampshire-president-results

Donald Trump - 54.4% - 176,157 votes - 12 delegates
Nikki Haley - 43.3% - 140,440 votes - 9 delegates

8:11 PM Eastern, MSNBC declares Trump the winner. Haley’s share of the vote has been continually dropping all night.

8:23 PM Eastern, Haley has conceded, but remains in the race.

MSNBC has predicted Joe Biden wins the Democratic primary by write in.

99% of Democratic ballots are in:

Biden - 79,470 (65.5%)
Phillips - 24,315 (20%)
Write Ins - 7,884 (6.5%)
Williamson - 4,933 (4.1%)

South Carolina is the next one that counts on 2/24. Haley’s home state, polls are showing her losing 60/20 more or less.

I’m torn on the Nevada primary which is next, coming up on February 6th.

Nevada is doing BOTH a primary on 2/6 and a caucus on 2/8. Nikki Haley is choosing to only participate in the Primary but not the Caucus.

Problem: The Primary is entirely performative, the delegates get assigned by the Caucus in which Haley is not participating.

No matter how well she does in New Hampshire, it seems she self selected out of Nevada. :(

But let me know, if you want a Nevada megapost, I can set it up!

New Hampshire primary history:

2016 Primaries:
Donald Trump - 11 Delegates - 100,735 votes - 35.23%
John Kasich - 4 - 44,932 - 15.72%
Ted Cruz - 3 - 33,244 - 11.63%
Jeb Bush - 3 -31,341 - 10.96%
Marco Rubio - 2 - 30,071 - 10.52%
Chris Christie - 0- 21,089 - 7.38%

Bernie Sanders - 15 delegates, 152,193 votes, 60.14%
Hillary Clinton - 9, 95,355, 37.68%

2016 General:
Clinton - 348,526 - 47.62%
Trump - 345,790 - 47.25%

2020 Primaries:

Donald Trump - 22 Delegates, 129,734 Votes, 84.4%
Bill Weld - 0 - 13,844 - 9.0%

Bernie Sanders - 9 Delegates - 76,384 Votes - 25.6%
Pete Buttigieg - 9 - 72,454 - 24.3%
Amy Klobuchar - 6 - 58,714 - 19.7%
Elizabeth Warren - 0 - 27,429 - 9.2%
Joe Biden - 0 - 24,944 - 8.4%

2020 General:

Biden - 424,921 votes, 52.71%
Trump - 365,654, 45.36%

  • @jeffw
    5•11 months ago

    Some background:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/22/trump-leads-new-hampshire-post-monmouth-poll/

    The poll finds 52 percent of potential primary voters supporting Trump, while 34 percent are backing Haley. In the poll, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is at 8 percent

    If DeSantis’s supporters in the poll are allocated based on their second choice, Trump’s support rises by four points while Haley’s increases by two points.

    Haley’s support has nearly doubled from 18 percent in November, appearing to benefit from the withdrawal of former New Jersey governor Chris Christie. But Trump’s support has grown by six percentage points over the same period

    While Trump leads Haley by 18 points among all potential voters, his advantage grows to 28 points among voters who say they are “extremely motivated” to vote

    Haley’s favorability ratings have declined among New Hampshire potential GOP primary voters: 46 percent of them are favorable

    Trump’s favorability rating is 23 points net positive, with 59 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters rating him favorably and 36 percent unfavorably