Within the first hour of threads going live, about a dozen of those im following on ig have joined (and began posting). When it’s fully federated, could this be the entry level platform the fediverse needs to push it into average use? I have a slight feeling it’ll be a BeReal type scenario where people use it for a few months and then move on, but id be stoked to be able to have my friends and family see my posts on mastodon/lemmy.
Threads will mainstream threads.
Any good content here will be available to the Threads users, who will be oblivious to where it is coming from.
Eventually, Meta will take steps to break compatability, and lots of the most prolific contributors from here will move to Threads exclusively (for a host of valid reasons).
When it is no longer in Meta interest to federate, they will stop.The fediverse will continue, but it will be weakened by it’s temporary reliance on Threads (who could afford to host large images/videos/etc, have lower latency, etc etc).
Why would users from here migrate to Threads?
Maybe the client is faster/prettier/can show videos/uses less data/integrates with their phone better.
Maybe it’s got features that clients here lack such as the ability to host larger images or video.
Maybe the user is sick of responding to conversations over there and it not being federated, so they are ignored.
Maybe using the Threads app is just faster (because it’s local instead of batch federating).If I was in charge of product design for Threads, I would be literally crawling the issue listings for Lemmy/Kbin and the associated clients looking for complaints and implementing solutions for those problems.
Then I would make a list of every limitation within the system and make sure Threads exceeds that baseline.And then when I had made the software better in every measurable way (because I am paying a large team of developers to target those pain points), I’d start adding features that ActivityPub doesn’t, especially if ActivityPub instances would find those features hard to implement.
I’d make damn sure that every time ActivityPub changes from a source outside Meta, I’d drag my heels on implementing that feature, so that instance hosts are forced to choose between implementing the new version, or maintaining compatability with Threads.
Why would a user here move there?
Because their spouse/coworker/friend tried to send something for the 50th time and the message just never came through.this is a great point. while i think more users joining the fediverse (even indirectly) is a good move for its success, that success does wholly rely on meta at that point and that could cause trouble. you’re also spot on about their client, i already prefer it to the mastodon one and it’s only been out a few hours.
Thanks for the rundown. Scary risks
I’m only one voice screaming in the darkness, but I want to be clear.
These are not risks. These are certainties.
And the only thing we can do about it is refuse to participate in their bad faith actions, for whatever good that will do.
Are you applying for a job at Meta? Is that your essay on why they should hire you?
20 years of professional developer experience and some outsider knowledge of what Facebook has done in the past.
I’m not a cheap whore Meta, I expect to get PAID.
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That’s why I hope most instances defederate at the get go and totally ignore Meta… A large corporation will bring nothing but destruction when it comes down to it.
I don’t think we want to be hoping for such a thing.
Maybe it’ll turn out to be something good, but there are good reasons mastodon/twitter bridging was despised.
fucking hope not
Keep in mind that right now, all of the big names posting are paid content. It’s probably not labeled as such, but they’re all on Meta’s payroll to make the platform attractive to new users. Will it take off? It actually has a decent chance. Not because of anything that they’re doing, but because of exactly how badly Twitter is fucking things up right now. People want out, and most couldn’t/wouldn’t/didn’t make the jump to Mastodon when everything with Musk started. This now looks like a viable alternative to them.
But no, I don’t want Facebook to destroy this beautiful new thing I just found.
Looks like bluesky is beating threads at getting the twitter crowd over, threads might be more of a draw for instagram users. In any case, both are bad news for mastodon if people dont even consider it as an alternative between those two.
I suppose that depends on what you consider “good” for Mastodon. I wouldn’t consider growth simply for the sake of growth to be a good thing. That’s stage 1 of enshittification. It also means a shitload of awful people joining, tons of mod work, etc.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for Mastodon and the fediverse becoming more accessible. I just think the growth needs to be for the right reasons.
Agreed, to a point. I do like the smaller communities but on the other hand I also want mastodon to be a larger blip on the overall perception so we get first-hand content creators instead of having to resort to bots copying over tweets since none of the original people want to bother with it.
Three hours since official launch and top personalities have already amassed 100K+ followers. Not sure what the official headcount is on Mastodon these days but those counts already surpass the total number of users on Lemmy.
Harder to find current and useful numbers than I expected.
According to https://mastodon.social/@mastodonusercount,
13,213,947 accounts
According to https://me.pcmag.com/en/social-media-1/17992/mastodon-sees-another-surge-in-active-users-following-twitters-rate-limiting,
2,055,502 active users monthly (3,797,695 active users half-year)
Will threads mainstream the fediverse?
Well, if you want to be treated like trash, or if you want to be harassed for your sexuality, then yes. But, honestly, who do want such things in their life?
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It will poison the Fediverse with terfs.
Lol
They will try to mainstream threads, not fediverse
