Meanwhile my net worth keeps going lower and lower.

I still think the first trillionaire should be dipped in gold and put on display as a warning.

This has already been debunked. Tesla would have to continue to climb at the rate it has since its inception, and that is very unlikely to happen.

The government should nationalize his companies as a reward.

Informa notes that Musk’s net worth has been growing rapidly at an average rate of 110% per year, making him the “clear favorite” to hit the $1 trillion first.

That is some terrible extrapolation

There are several problems with this report.

The Line Doesn’t Go Up

As others have pointed out, this implies that Tesla (and to a significantly lesser extent his other enterprises) continues its valuation increase at the current rate. This is not going to happen. Indeed looking just at this graph should show that this is unlikely:

The 2024-09-16 close isn’t even the highest of the past 52 weeks, not to mention the highest of all time (which is c. 2021-11-05). (It isn’t even the highest close of the past 30 days—or of even the past 5 days!) It is, in fact, 55-56% of the all-time high, and that was almost three years ago.

And the pattern of its financials will prevent that line from going up:

See, most investors invest not because they’re cult members (like the fanboi day traders Apartheid Manchild grifts so well) but because they expect to see ROI. And the fundamentals of Tesla are not showing ROI potential.

So the line isn’t pointing up.

Stock Valuation Is Fantasy

And on top of this, this is all “paper wealth”. All of the Manchild’s stocks and five bucks buys you a small coffee at Starbucks. To actually buy more than that small coffee at Starbucks (ideally without an extra five bucks handed to him) the Manchild would have to cash in those stocks. And when he starts selling stock, the stock value will drop. The more he sells, the faster it will drop. That stock bonanza he has is not cash and its valuation is purest fantasy. It’s points for score-keeping, not something you can actually spend.

Basically the only thing you can spend are “liquid assets” and most of Apartheid Manchild’s assets are not liquid (which is why he had to borrow to buy Xhitter). Attempting to liquidate them will drop their value like a concussed bee.

Apartheid Manchild is a Moron

Apartheid Manchild is not the Tony Stark of Real Life like he seems to think he is. He is a guy who started rich and fell upwards. His most valuable company is not one he founded. It’s one he paid for the right to be called the founder of. He didn’t invent electric cars. He didn’t invent reusable rockets. He didn’t invent much of anything, in fact. He has 29 patents to his name. Compare and contrast with James Dyson¹ and his almost 550 patents. The most cited of his patents (with 202 citations) would be #10 on Dyson’s list of influential patents. How about a more recognizable name: Sergey Brin at 141 patents.

And when you look at Apartheid Manchild’s actual patents, the 9 that are actually currently active (9 have expired, and 10 are pending) are singularly unimpressive for such a “world class genius”. Again Dyson will eat his lunch for sheer volume of practical patents, as will Brin (who himself looks like a playing toddler next to Dyson).

Yet if you listen to the Manchild, he is the leading expert on everything that Trump isn’t the leading expert on. He’s the leading expert on logistics (says the man who has chronic supply problems). On manufacturing (says the man whose cars frequently have major quality issues). On electric cars (says the man whose cars are beginning to look positively quaint next to the competition’s). On robotics. On AI. On rockets. On …

And he’s not an expert in anything. Except falling upward in a system whose feedback loops guarantee that once you crack a certain level of cash you fall upward.

This is unsustainable, and once it stops sustaining, his net worth will fall like so many wealthy idiots before him. The higher he sails on the crack of his quisling’s praise, the harder and faster his inevitable fall will be.

Apartheid Manchild is His Own Worst Enemy

As a special case of being a moron, a few years back Apartheid Manchild was something that you could kind of find adorable if you had a certain personality type. He seemed like the bumbling nerd made good. Further his fiction of the self-made billionaire tackling the Big Names with gumption and talent is the kind of stuff the American (Opium) Dream is made of. If he’d kept his mouth shut and kept himself out of the spotlight he might not be in the pickle he’s found himself in now.

But he has too large an ego for that, and a serious grudge against the world to nurse.

So instead he mouthed off on Twitter. Then he trapped himself into having to buy Twitter for waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much. Then he turned Twitter into an echo chamber to amplify his real personality.

And his real personality is repugnant to most people.

He is damaging the Tesla brand. He is damaging the SpaceX brand despite the herculean efforts of Shotwell and co. He has a long string of business failures behind him that are making people think he isn’t the genius he claims to be. And all of this is going to negatively impact his wealth.

So he won’t ever be a trillionaire.

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¹ Who? Exactly my point.

Nah, with his recent track record I suspect prison time and a huge loss of money

Guess he’ll just buy America then, fuck.

How soon?