Fun fact: The ruble is worth only slightly more then shitcoin, I predict that soon it will overtake the ruble
They’ll catch up over the next few months as we see a sharp decline in the value of the US dollar and Trump ending sanctions against them.
A couple people are saying things like that in this thread. Obviously not everyone is an economics expert. This really started crashing like 2 weeks ago, and they are very near a point of no return. What I’m saying is, they don’t have months. This is kind of already game over.
Tbh I don’t know shit about shit. I was just making a flippant prediction that’s more about America than Russia.
I figured. I was hijacking =]
Only if they actually get a peace deal. Otherwise Russia still has EU sanctions and a war going on.
Well, we can still track the “value” of the Ruble against the Euro.
Hasn’t the russian central bank closed all foreign currency transactions? That was what I understood (source Joe blogs).
They’ll just suspend trading again, likely until trump lifts sanctions. Value can’t fall if it can’t be compared in the market.
But currencies aren’t traded only on one exchange, but all over, surely you can’t suspend trading for currencies?
They can restrict official trading, I thought they already did something like that before, maybe not. Besides, market is mostly made by large players, what people can trade in the banks will make less of an impact.
Lost like 7 percent today (or percentage points, funnily about the same here).
Whoa do “percent” and “percentage points” actually refer to different things?
Yeah, “percentage points” is used to refer to a difference between two percentages.
For example, let’s say some company previously held 25% of the market, but grew and is now holding 50% of the market. The company’s market share actually doubled in size, which we could call an increase of 100%. Or, looking at it another way, because they grew from 25% to 50%, you can call it an increase of 25 percentage points.
Sounds like “percentage points” provides less information to the viewer, which explains the context I most often see it used.
Yes. If you have a half full battery it’s at 50% full.
If the charge goes up by 50% you get a 75% full battery.
If the charge goes up by 50 percentage points it goes up to 100%
What does it even matter if you can’t exchange it?
All imported goods will be more expensive. So, like, everything.
What does Russia import, and who outside of China and maybe India is importing stuff into Russia?
Better question is what doesn’t it import.
Cars? Imported. Induatrial tools? Imported. Electronics? 100% of it is imported.
It has decent agriculture production, but all the tractors and factories for it are aging, cause maintenance got really expensive after the war because yes all that machinery was imported.
Oh and weapons. They do produce weapons.
China and India have about a quarter of the worlds population and GDP…
Unfortunately most western brands still find their way to the russian market.
I had heard stories on brand sneakily dealing with Russia, so was wondering if this could be a way for the west to further destroy the Russian economy. Between Europe, Korea, and the US, if all brands caught importing into Russia from Jan 1st are banned from doing business in the west.
Alongside this, with added pressure/deal brokering with India and China, Russia could find itself with a broken economy beyond repair and few allies willing to prop it up.
The thing is, while everything is so starkly clear for us here, it’s not that black and white for other countries. So yes, India and China will become stronger business partners. And I think even if they will pressure Russia into bad deals, those deals will still be enough to keep Russia somewhat working economically. Whether this economy will be sustainable in the long run or do the country any good prosperity wise doesn’t matter. The top 1% couldn’t care less about how well the economy does. Do you think Putin or some oil oligarch really cares about inflation or whether millions of Russians can’t afford to buy food?
The problem is that the west cannot really go without sanctions, but everyone is fully aware that the rich and powerful have no problem overgoing them. The rich guys will always have access to Gucci. They keep becoming richer. And it is very difficult to impossible to get rid of this problem. While, for them, it is a minor inconvenience, it is a major catastrophe for the broad population. I think even if we tried something like going after the brands as you described (“ban them from doing business in the west if caught dealing in Russia”) they will still find a way to not get caught, blame someone else for being sold, pay a fine, continue business as usual in both hemispheres.
Having no McDonald’s and a Russian rip off is not the problem here. Believe me, people whine a bit, but they are resilient to these changes. You have to be resilient in Russia because for generations, everything went further south, the more you tried the more so. No one will start a revolution because they miss McDonald’s, Palmolive or Ferrero. You whine, accept, and life goes on, just a bit harder and shittier than it was before, again and again, there is no time to care more than that because you have to survive. You know you’re absolutely powerless and the best you can do is focus on your little life and make it as bearable and enjoy the little things before it gets worse again.
wait why do you care if Russians can buy Lululemon?
I do care a lot about that. Brands claiming they are pulling out of Russia because they got the moral high ground and/or sanctions just to sneak back in because they still can make additional profit in this market. Especially luxury brands. As long as you are rich, you won’t care about sanctions and risen prices. And again the poorest people who are already suffering and are completely powerless politically suffer the most, be it from inflation, drafting, or sanctions. So fuck all those brands for making sanctions even less useful than they are, for catering to the oligarchs who give a fuck about their country going to shit and people dying.
Okay, I get the abstract, “it feels wrong” thing, but what is the strategic value?
What do you mean? What is the strategic value of banning western luxury brands in russia, is that the question?
If the russian people cannot buy (or it gets really expensive) butter, and the elite cannot buy Porsches, there will be (more) civil unrest.
If the russians pay more for military stuff then thats good too.
They did manage to replace most of them with local analogues though. I wish it was the same in the Middle East, instead US and western brands are over represented. I don’t necessarily want it to be imposed on us, Russia was forcefully cut off, but I would appreciate if Western brands were less dominant and I do encourage boycotting them.
You can exchange it over the counter and it also matters in relation to other currencies.
More like russian rubble , amirite?
They’re called low hanging fruit for a reason
Shit, I just wanted to make that joke 😂
Guess I am not the only one.
It happened in 2022 and bounced back to 2 cents in just weeks. Trump comes back in weeks, I can see things looking better for Russia with Trump’s presidency. I might be wrong, maybe the whole world is going to shit with Trump.
I’ll never understand how economies work, I just assume it’s all imaginary money.
All moneyis imaginary. Economics works by allowing some people with a lot of imaginary money to exploit (the planet and) people that depends on them by giving miniscule amounts of imaginary money, just enough to survive.
You’re basically right anyway.
Speaking basically they are right.
Speaking at medium understanding they are wrong.
Speaking at advanced understanding they are absolutely correct.
Effectively, no one can buy Russian goods so no one wants to buy Russia currency.
As such, it has low value as everyone is trying to get rid of something that is worthless to them, and a willing to accept a lower price to do so.
Or using high school economics- lots of suppliers, low number of buyers, value drops.
Think of it as demand, right now people want Russian money less.
Speculative economics is literally definitionally imaginary. In this case, it’s because of real factors with Russia’s GDP - the massive amount of trade embargoes on Russia meaning they can’t really import or export a lot of the stuff they would have made money on, as well as them grinding all their young men (who would otherwise be working) into a pulp.
Maybe I should convert some freedom dollars to rubles and wait for the orange man to make them valuable again in the next few months…
Well this is the most wall st bets sort of thing I have seen on lemmy.
Why would you think anything will go up under orange man? The guy who is kinda famous for being an isolationist? The guy using tariffs to wage economic war on the USs closest allies?
I mean with the same sort of logic, buy South African Rands.
If you trade your USD for other currencies and the value of the dollar goes down against those currencies your get more dollars when you sell those other currencies for dollars. Thus this means that the value of the other currencies went up.
You get around 100 Rubles for every US dollar let’s say you buy 1000 Rubles with 10 dollars, if the value of the dollar goes to 50 Rubles (meaning the value of the Rubles went up) then you trade those 1000 Rubles back to dollars you’d get 20 US dollars.
I think they’re aware of how it works. Currency speculation is not complicated or new. The thing is, why would you expect the ruble to be a better investment than another currency? Why would you expect it to bounce back?
It’s a Wall Streets Bets thing because it’s very stupid gambling based on very poor logic. If you’re going to start speculating in currency, the ruble is probably not where you want to start right now.
Ha, and more on the same point russia just closed the ruble market. So no more trading in rubles and no more ruble values being released.
Should invest in Rands.
I think it is a good idea to help them to understand to use their language.
The rubles don’t go “up” but the dollar goes “down”.
That better matches their understanding of reality and it is irrelevant for what you try to communicate.
The “them” in the comment you replied to, I think it refers to the rubles, specifically relative to the original dollars.
Yes, it was not unclear.
Heeeeeey.
This is how folks get rich right here. Crazy ideas like this.
Well, that or they lose everything. Let me know if you do it so I can cheer you on.
That might be a viable strategy if those were the only two currencies. (But even then, the freedom dollars are still likely to stay in better shape - since the USA is not currently an international pariah or financing a failed invasion.)
Seems kind of a no-brainer if that’s what you actually believe is going to happen. It’s one thing to say one believes something but I’m way more convinced when they’re actually willing to bet money for it.
I don’t think you can just get Rubles with all the sanctions.
Fair point!
Yes, I expected to at least find a financial instrument tied to a USD - RUB value, like a CFD, but I couldn’t find any.
“put your money where your mouth is”
I tried that once; the taste was horrible!
What’s your horizon / timeline? If you can wait 20 years it may payoff handsomely. But who knows how the world is gonna go until then…
Assuming Russia even exists in 20 years…
It probably will, but it’s also probably a stupid thing to gamble on. There are safer bets.
uh oh
some truble
Is that more or less than the Roblox currency this time?
after a quick search, 1 robux = 0.0125 usd, so just over a cent.
I know we all want to believe Russia’s economy is way worse than ever and almost back in the stone age by now, but if you look at the long term, unfortunately it’s not that dramatic…
You are both correct. A decade is a perfectly acceptable time frame by which to judge forex, however the two decade window fills in additional context.
True, but the way I see it, a graph shouldn’t be cropped and left without a labeled y axis, especially when making a point about long term-ness.
One narrative is about effectiveness of sanctions, specifically the ones levied at the start of 2022. Zooming out beyond 2015 doesn’t really change that narrative (no appreciable effect tied with a change that happened in 2022).
The other narrative relates to Russia’s big picture strategy. Undoubtedly by this measure, Russia is underperforming. We might conclude that the sanctions was effective only once, in 2014. Or just a bad economy for another reason that spurred war.
This guy graphs
The issue is the crop has obliterated the starting value
Perfect crop, comrade 🤡
lies, damned lies, and statistics
So… basically when Crimea got stolen? I forget if that was also US sanctions, my selections memory remembers we were too soft on them back then.
☝️
Yeah but this clearly isn’t as a consequence of the war
Crimea was invaded in 2014.
Please tell us what happened in 2014…
A ten year steady decline in the currency of a “world power” is no big deal. 👍
Yeah, the message I get is that a 10% one-day decline doesn’t look like much on the tail end of 70% losses. Worthless paper is worthless.
Russia has the same economy as Italy. We take them only seriously because of their nuclear weapons.
As an Italian… Not sure if proud or embarrassed…
You’ve got way better food though. How many Russian restaurants do you see around the world?
I had one in the city that going by reviews was quite good
Now it’s a very nice Chinese restaurant.
I’m just amazed your comment made it through your clown government internet filter.
Sorry….😢
Actually, it’s not. But it’s not a world power either.
And a large decline in a single day, smaller than that steady decline in a decade can be quite a big deal. Or can be nothing. Nobody knows.
According to some social media bubbles, it should have dropped to 1/10 in the past 2 years.
According to some social media bubbles the world is flat and Xenu populated the earth
Ah, the kremlin talking points “look your measures doesn’t work!!1! (So can you remove them, ok?)”
Nobody thought the ruble would crash one or two years ago.
But well, now is now and it looks like the funds have been used up, the inflation is at its maximum utility etc etc and now it’s crash time!
No fair you’re not allowed to provide context
What? I don’t get how it disproves the graph from the other commenter or anything else
Edit: Oh I thought they were saying the first graph depicts it as worse than it is but it was the other way around which makes much more sense
The other commenter cropped their image right before the last massive drop in 2015
By inverting the transaction it more clearly shows the trend between the two currencies.
Maybe if you don’t understand basic math? Those charts are just reciprocals
Understanding and visualizing are different things. Perhaps spend some skill points in reading comprehension.
That is literally illegal on the internet.
Why would you argue with a banana? You’re obviously not a banana.
Its true its not that dramatic on its own but this is after implementing a ton of measures to prop it up and cranking up the interest rate. The Ruble is struggling just to stand still and Putin is running out of ways to prop it up.
Perfect crop, comrade 🤡
They cropped out the banana.
“comrade”?
Are you implying that Russia is in any way more communist or less capitalist than the US?
Cause you’d be wrong.I think he implies that strategic cropping like that seems a lot like Russian propaganda.
If I call a colleague a “cumrade” I’m not implying they are some sort of cum-flavoured soda drink.
Why’d they add coconut?
Oh, so you know “Cumrade Cockonut” too??
Small world :D
I mean, it being as low as it once was doesn’t mean it is going great.
An interest rate of 21% is also not an indication of things going great.
I think I saw that they pumped interest up to like 21% at this point to control inflation. Could you imagine? It’s like 7% here in the US and it has made me -very- content with my current vehicle and house…
It’s pretty dramatic. Interest rates, currency in freefall, no exports, imports too expensive, morgages failing, salaries dropping, brain drain, …
It’s pretty bad. They have some ways to go, the war chest is not empty, they can continue to print money they can hold of for another two years maybe.
We will see what trump does. But they are in a world of hurt no matter what happens next.
Your graph lacks any context. What is the Y axis?
It literally says in the title of the chart it’s rubles per dollar graphed over time
Their economy was never good. Many more people living there than in Germany, much larger country than Germany… And still economically worse than Germany…
They have the same economy as Italy.
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That is terRuble
The ruble is in trooble
Sanctions in full effect.
Just a little bit lower and it will be cheaper than the toilet paper it’s made from, as it should be.
That’s the official trading rate. The black market rate is 1 ruble for an empty snickers wrapper.
I thought it was yogurt tops. Damn you inflation!!!
Reminds me of that bot I saw on one of the German speaking communities. Each time to say an ammount of money in Euro, it would then for example reply with “1 Euro, 2 DMark, 4 OstMark, 40 Ostmark auf dem Schwarzmarkt”. (“1 Euro used to be 2 German Mark, used to be 4 East German Mark, and 40 East German Mark on the black market”)
