gets $10000000
Fuck
What sane person would turn that down, even if they’re cis? I’m pressing that thing until I’m the richest woman on the planet; it’s better than being a moderately poor guy.
Cis male here. Im absolutely smashing that button. No current desire to be a woman, but i also dont see it as a drawback. I see no inherent “risk” to in the risk/benefit analysis
Same situation, but I’d have to discuss with my SO before I smash it, and I’d likely only press it once.
Bluntly, if you invest it correctly, even at a 1% return, you can make $100k in yearly interest on $10M. That’s more than my salary.
However, having that stable and passive income is less important to me than my partner. If she didn’t want to take the risk of me becoming a woman, or if she would leave if it happened, I likely wouldn’t risk it. To put it simply, her, and her happiness, is more important to me than money. Money I can make, I can’t exactly find anyone that will even come close to living up to what she means to me. People like her are not exactly super common.
I’m sure it’s a popular button, but a lot of people would turn in down. If someone is comfortable with their current wealth and gender, they may turn it down. People are also likely to turn it down due to fear of unforeseen consequences (where is this money coming from)? Some people would turn it down because they really really don’t want to be a woman. And some people would turn it down because money is a corrupting evil force.
eh i don’t think it’s quite enough money to be worth it for someone who is properly cis and currently well off, like there’s a reason gender dysphoria is something people want to get rid of…
I wouldn’t hit it. I would find it horribly annoying to be treated like a women forever. The money i could gift away though. Would be tempting, but the fear of being a woman would stop me.
- Is there a limit of how many times can I push the button?
- Once I turn into a woman can I still push the button?
- Do you carry your physical measures? I have large feet and is difficult to find men shoes of my size, women shoes of my size would be almost impossible.
On 2. I suppose you might just get more feminine
All the cis dudes in here thinking it wouldn’t be so bad to be a woman: you don’t know what dysphoria is like.
$10M would take the edge off
I mean as I understand it if you turn into a woman, you don’t get the $10M, so it’s a pretty big gamble unless you actually want to be a woman.
It says 99% chance of 10 mill, 1% chance of turning into a woman
I mean as I understand it if you turn into a woman, you don’t get the $10M
Go in with some friends and split the winnings.
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not every trans person has dysphoria, do they?
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considering this is a magical button the assumption would be that you become a cis woman, so you probably wouldn’t have the setbacks of body dysphoria or transphobia. just regular old misogyny.
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I’m guessing it would affect people differently, psychologically speaking, to be in the wrong body as a result of a conscious choice as an adult knowing everything you know beforehand vs being born in it without a choice and not even understanding what always feels wrong until a certain age.
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some people may identify as cis but not have a strong connection to their gender identity or masculinity in general. it could be cis & male privileges combined that you don’t even think about it much but still
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I just presumed that turning me into a woman would entail no gender dysphoria, as opposed to like “change your body into a woman’s body” which would leave the rest of my psyche unchanged, and then probably I’d get dysphoria.
But hey, interpreting vague language is half the fun of stuff like this.
Nothing in the rules about spending a bit of your $10M to transition back
Also an option, assuming you can push the button more than once.
Go in with some friends. Everyone pushes the button. You split the winnings.
If I was a woman I wouldn’t have dysphoria, no? Unless it altered my body without doing anything to me.
(I guess if it was a sadistic genie it could also alter the brain but not the body, handing out dysphoria without physical change.)
If you are so CIS that you find male bodies ugly, … that’s a flaming lesbian as a result right there. (But I know what you mean* just a jokus)
You just keep pressing until you turn back.
Works out if you’re agender but unaware
Agender people can have dysphoria
I think they meant cis by default
How many times can I press the button?
I mean, I’m a cis man, but I’d press that button like I didn’t understand the word “inflation”, and if I turn into a chick then smack my ass and call me Judith, because this bitch just got herself a hot pink Barbie styled 6x6 Brabus G-wagon
Presses it 100 times
37% chance to make a billion dollars.
63% chance to make less than a billion dollars and turn into a woman.
How many times do I have to press it to get a 90% chance of having a billion dollars? What about a 90% chance of both?
Asking for a me who took statistics too long ago and is too sick to sit down and work it out.
okay so bear with me here.
i’m going to calculate this using the binomial distribution, where n = number of button presses, and p = 0.99. so, if we let X be a random variable that follows that binomial distribution B(n, 0.99), then X corresponds to how many times we win money after pressing the button n times. (e.g., if we “only” get $10,000,000 after n button presses, then X = 1.)
in this setup, the probability of getting a billion dollars is given by
(this is basically just summing up all scenarios in which we get the money outcome at least 100 times.)
to calculate the chance of getting a billion dollars and becoming a woman, notice that we are guaranteed to be a woman so long as we hit the button fewer than n times. so, the probability of getting a billion dollars and becoming a woman is given by
to answer your questions, we just need to find the smallest value of n that makes both of the above equations greater than or equal to 0.90. there are probably some clever math tricks that could be utilized to do this, but i just wrote some python code to do it. the values are:
minimum number of presses for a 90% chance of getting a billion dollars: 102 button presses.
minimum number of presses for a 90% chance of getting a billion dollars and becoming a woman: 230 button presses.
Presses the button 230 times
Nuh uh 1% times 100 is 100% idiot
/s obviously
What’s the down side?
Paying taxes on that $10M
US$ ?.. or like, LD$ ?
Wait can you press it multiple times? Because, like… money button go brrr…
What happens if you’re already XX? you get XXX?
I will press it 100 times
Only a 63% chance if you do it 100 times, do it a few thousand to be safe (and richer).
yeah, but if I get in the billionaire territory, I’ll have to kill myself
Why is that?
Just statistics, there’s a 99% chance to not turn into a woman each time, and 99% ^ 100 ≈ 37%. So the chance of turning into a woman after 100 presses is 100% - 37% = 63%.
The button does not know or care that it has been pressed by anyone. Every press is a new roll of a die, so to speak, that has an equal chance to land anywhere between 1 and 100. You can also read about the Gambler’s Fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler’s_fallacy
That’s under the (reasonable) assumption that every press is indeed a new roll of the die, of course. It can also be that someone rolled the die when they were making the button, so it always does the same thing and there’s a 99% chance that thing is giving you money.
Just keep pressing it till it works I don’t see the problem
Can a statistics guy tell me how rich I’m likely to be once my body is nice?
I press the button and if you dont become a girl, i try to make the anti-trans conspiracy theories true
We’d all get blisters on out thumbs…
