cross-posted from: https://lemm.ee/post/56722499
“If fiscal expenses remain at their January levels throughout the remainder of the year, the NWF reserves could vanish in just three months. And even if they don’t — as is more likely — 2025 is probably the last year Moscow will be able to fully cover its fiscal deficit by tapping into those savings.”
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This will likely end the same way Afghanistan did (either the US or Russia), not in military victory, but with the occupying force deciding the cost is too much, and going home.
If we’re lucky, we’ll get to see Russia collapse again, too. As long as Ukraine can hold out long enough for this to happen.
So, with domestic borrowing increasingly out of the equation, Moscow has turned to plan C: tapping into the reserves of the Russian National Welfare Fund (NWF).
(… …)
The reason Putin might finally be ready to negotiate seems to be remarkably simple: He wants to avoid a humiliating bankruptcy.So Ukraine might hold on i.m.o.
Ukraine definitely needs to hold on longer. They also should maintain the aggressive attacks on oil and fuel facilities. Reducing those facilities to ruble will strangle Russia’s ability to generate income for the next decade.
