Of these, I feel like climate change, a meteor, and nuclear war are really the only viable existential threats, and even climate change will most likely not destroy humanity wholly, although what’s left may not be worth living in.

Absolutely:

1. Climate Change (70 - 80%):

   • Rising sea levels causing coastal city displacement.
   • More frequent and severe natural disasters, such as hurricanes and wildfires.
   • Agricultural disruptions leading to food shortages.
   • Climate-induced migrations causing geopolitical tensions.
   • Ocean acidification damaging marine ecosystems.

2. Nuclear Warfare (5 - 10%):

   • Immediate loss of life from blast and thermal radiation.
   • Long-term radiation exposure causing health issues and deaths.
   • Nuclear winter, severely impacting global climate and agriculture.
   • Societal collapse due to infrastructural damage.
   • Contamination of natural resources.

3. Pandemics (40 - 50%):

   • Massive loss of life and strain on healthcare systems.
   • Economic downturns due to lockdowns and decreased consumer confidence.
   • Disruptions in global trade and supply chains.
   • Increased mental health issues due to isolation and stress.
   • Reduced mobility leading to cultural and educational setbacks.

4. Artificial Intelligence Misuse (20 - 30%):

   • Loss of jobs due to unchecked automation.
   • Misinformation campaigns undermining democratic processes.
   • Unintended consequences from AI decisions in critical systems.
   • Surveillance and privacy concerns.
   • AI-driven cyber-attacks.

5. Biodiversity Loss (60 - 70%):

   • Disruption of ecosystems, leading to loss of services they provide.
   • Increased vulnerability to pests and diseases.
   • Reduced agricultural productivity and food security.
   • Loss of medicinal resources and potential discoveries.
   • Negative impact on cultural and recreational values.

6. Economic Collapse (20 - 25%):

   • Mass unemployment and reduced quality of life.
   • Collapse of essential services and infrastructure.
   • Increased crime rates and social unrest.
   • Potential for political upheavals and radicalization.
   • Long-term stagnation and reduced global cooperation.

7. Asteroid Impact (0.01 - 0.1%):

   • Immediate loss of life from impact event.
   • Global climate changes due to debris and soot.
   • Disruption of global food chains leading to famines.
   • Economic collapses due to widespread infrastructure damage.
   • Potential for long-term ecological and atmospheric disturbances.

8. Geomagnetic Storms (10 - 15%):

   • Widespread power outages and grid failures.
   • Disruption of satellite communication and navigation systems.
   • Economic losses due to infrastructure damage.
   • Potential aviation hazards.
   • Disruption in digital communication networks.

9. Resource Depletion (40 - 50%):

   • Increased prices leading to economic strain.
   • Potential for geopolitical conflicts over resources.
   • Reduced quality of life due to scarcity.
   • Environmental degradation from over-extraction.
   • Societal tensions and potential migrations due to resource inequalities.

10. Political Instability (30 - 40%):

• Regional conflicts potentially escalating to global wars.
• Disruptions in global trade and diplomatic relations.
• Mass migrations and refugee crises.
• Economic downturns and potential resource hoarding.
• Erosion of democratic values and human rights.

.

It has drastically overstated the likelihood of a globally catastrophic impact from space.

A devastating regional impact is estimated to occur once every 10,000 to 100,000 years. Note that’s regional not global.

There has only been one of any significance in all of recorded history that I’m aware of, which fortunately took place in an uninhabited region of Siberia.

Search for Torino Scale if you’re interested in learning more about how they estimate and categorize these threats.

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