Another data point yesterday was University of Miami (Ohio) poll of Ohio showing Trump+3 in Ohio. It’s not as extreme a swing as the Selzer Iowa poll but it’s a significant shift from 2016, 2020 and much of the polling this cycle.
So while the Selzer poll is out on a bit of an island, the Miami-Ohio poll certainly shows a similar swing.
I’m inclined towards pessimism, but it’s hard not to feel there’s some significant herding happening, and that the averages are being affected by it as well as some low quality pollsters flooding the data with polls
Another data point yesterday was University of Miami (Ohio) poll of Ohio showing Trump+3 in Ohio. It’s not as extreme a swing as the Selzer Iowa poll but it’s a significant shift from 2016, 2020 and much of the polling this cycle.
So while the Selzer poll is out on a bit of an island, the Miami-Ohio poll certainly shows a similar swing.
I’m inclined towards pessimism, but it’s hard not to feel there’s some significant herding happening, and that the averages are being affected by it as well as some low quality pollsters flooding the data with polls