Devil’s advocate time: We did play like Sp*rs against City. And it was 30 seconds away from working out.

Today City generated 2.15 xG from 23 shots, or about 0.1 xG per shot. Sp*rs had 2.51 xG from 9, or 0.28 xG per shot. The chance that City score 0 goals from those shots (napkin math incoming) is 10.5%.

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Math:
City avg xG per shot: 0.0935
Total shots: 23 (0 goals)
(1-0.1)^23 = 10.464%

When we played City (keeping in mind we were down a man for the second half), we allowed City 2.18 xG from 33, or about 0.066 xG per shot. Napkin stats, there’s a 10.5% chance that City score 0 goals from those numbers.

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Math:
City avg xG per shot: 0.066
Total shots: 33 (0 goals)
(1-0.066)^33 = 10.506%

Meaning, even taking into acount the red card, statistically we had just as much of a chance to keep City to a clean sheet than Sp*rs did. The bogey team thing I can’t speak to. But I’m sure Pep is scarred at this point.

The difference? The red card and luck. Maybe a sprinkling of psychology and a lack of humility. :)

Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.