Moscow has ramped up unconventional attacks against the West since it invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has ramped up its campaign of so-called hybrid attacks — such as arson, cyber and information campaigns, or sabotage — throughout Europe.
Recent examples include the alleged cutting of energy and communications cables in the Baltic Sea, which German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius described as “sabotage.” In that case, as in many other examples of hybrid attacks, it is difficult for governments to quickly and definitively attribute the attacks to Moscow.
Ukraine’s fall without US support is not necessarily a foregone conclusion. That would assume Russian offensives are sustainable, which they are not. They’re involved in a surge of their warfighting potential, which is steadily depleting their arsenals and straining their economy.
It remains to be seen how long they can keep it up.