Yeah, the issue with the old moon landing tech is that the success chances were so low. It was worth it to them when it was the first, but now that it’s been accomplished, there is less reason to take something that only has a 50/50 chance of working. Now, we want the odds of a successful complete trip to be at least 99%, ideally much higher. That is a much higher burden on the technology. I mean, consider the percent chance of a successful launch alone so far.
In 2023, there were 210 out of 222 successful rocket launches, about 95%. That’s just launch, the part we have the most practice with… once it leaves atmosphere, the number of things that can go wrong dramatically increases. Granted, that includes a lot of unmanned launches, which have a lower burden of safety. So far in the entire history of manned rocket launches, the success rate has been 98%, have to assume including only more recent data would probably pull that up a bit. If launch alone is barely hitting 99%, how many people are gonna sign up for something much more complicated, with much less motivation than they had in the 60’s.
Yeah, the issue with the old moon landing tech is that the success chances were so low. It was worth it to them when it was the first, but now that it’s been accomplished, there is less reason to take something that only has a 50/50 chance of working. Now, we want the odds of a successful complete trip to be at least 99%, ideally much higher. That is a much higher burden on the technology. I mean, consider the percent chance of a successful launch alone so far.
In 2023, there were 210 out of 222 successful rocket launches, about 95%. That’s just launch, the part we have the most practice with… once it leaves atmosphere, the number of things that can go wrong dramatically increases. Granted, that includes a lot of unmanned launches, which have a lower burden of safety. So far in the entire history of manned rocket launches, the success rate has been 98%, have to assume including only more recent data would probably pull that up a bit. If launch alone is barely hitting 99%, how many people are gonna sign up for something much more complicated, with much less motivation than they had in the 60’s.