It is unlikely that nominal (i.e. not inflation adjusted prices) will do anything but go up. I would argue this will be true irrespective of US tariff policy.
TSMC’s 7nm wafers (from ~2018) were around $10,000. 3nm wafers (from ~2022) cost around $18,000 and this is before any impact from US tariff policy. 2nm (to be released in 2025) is speculated to be in the ~$30,000 range (before tariffs?).
There are of course many other factors at play (yields, semiconductor size) and fabrication is only one cost component (there is also design, packaging, validation), but the trend is pretty clear.
It is unlikely that nominal (i.e. not inflation adjusted prices) will do anything but go up. I would argue this will be true irrespective of US tariff policy.
TSMC’s 7nm wafers (from ~2018) were around $10,000. 3nm wafers (from ~2022) cost around $18,000 and this is before any impact from US tariff policy. 2nm (to be released in 2025) is speculated to be in the ~$30,000 range (before tariffs?).
There are of course many other factors at play (yields, semiconductor size) and fabrication is only one cost component (there is also design, packaging, validation), but the trend is pretty clear.