More or less, yes. When the circuits are in agreement, it’s still not binding on SCOTUS, but traditionally it’s been powerfully persuasive. If they can get a similar ruling out of the 5th or 11th, then even for this court it’s likely game over, eventually. The gross thing is the cruelty and uncertainty of the Trumpian attitude towards the rule of law, which is simply, “I know what it says. Fuck it. Make 'em sue me.” It’s in bad faith and erodes the simple, predictable functioning of government, to say nothing of, y’know, being directed towards evil ends.

SCOTUS is very conservative and increasingly activist about it, but Roberts in particular doesn’t like being dragged through the political mud and he can usually prevail upon Kavanaugh or Barrett to be less crazy for a day. Roe was a special case in that it extended the legal idea of the “penumbra,” which was by definition fuzzy, and I learned about attacks on the idea over twenty years ago, so the Democrats bear a certain amount of blame for not spending some political capital at some point to ensconce it in statute, if not in an Amendment (which admittedly may have been a bridge too far). It was always a bit fragile. RBG also did her legacy no favors by being short-sighted about how her successor would be selected.

Anyway, all the “But dis iz whut it sez!” reasoning from the Second Amendment cases mostly works against MAGA here. The idea that you’re not subject to America’s laws because you broke one of them when entering the country is pretty absurd, and that concept only works in a context of international law. It was meant for Diplomats and their families with immunity, and for Female troops or officially-employed camp followers of another nation’s invading army (operating on the assumption here that “traditional” war pregnancies will involve mothers who are subject to the jurisdiction of the US) - also Native Americans, but we “fixed” that in 1924 at least. There was no significant bar to immigration at the federal level when the 14th amendment was drafted, but super racist senators explicitly whined that Chinese immigrants’ kids would become citizens, and others said, “Yeah? And?” Add in various court decisions over the decades since that have clarified who is and isn’t subject to jurisdiction, and it should be a settled question. There’s a dissent here and there, and an occasional whinge from the right, but there is very little for an “Originalist” court to complain about here, at least legitimately.