What began as a trickle of Shahed drones sold to Russia for use against Ukraine has turned into a flood. And now American intelligence officials believe that, despite warnings, Iran is preparing to ship short-range missiles for use against Ukraine, just as Kyiv is running short on air defense and artillery shells.
It is a reflection of a sharply altered power dynamic: Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran no longer finds itself isolated. It is suddenly in an alliance of sorts with both Moscow and China, two members of the U.N. Security Council that, in a past era, supported Washington in trying to limit Iran’s nuclear program. Now, that deal is dead, ended by former President Donald J. Trump five years ago, and suddenly Iran has two superpowers not only as allies, but as sanctions-busting customers.
“I see Iran as well positioned, and it has checkmated the U.S. and its interests in the Mideast,” said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. “Iran is active on all the borders, resistant to any sort of change from within, while enriching uranium at very alarming levels.”
People in the IDF (friends of a friend) are saying there’s a conflict with Iran coming up in the next few months. This is not looking very good.