GDP expansion could drop to 3% range in 2024-25 without policy response on real estate

China’s economic growth was in line with the country’s roughly 5% goal last year but will lose steam in 2024 and beyond, dropping as low as 3.4% in 2028, according to an International Monetary Fund report published Friday.

Real gross domestic product growth for Asia’s largest economy will slow to 4.6% in 2024 from an estimated 5.4% last year, according to IMF forecasts.

China’s real estate slump and weaker demand for its exports will weigh on growth this year, while in the medium term, the country will face “headwinds from weak productivity and population aging,” the IMF said following an annual consultation with Chinese officials.