Headlines are circulating claiming Apple cut Vision Pro production by almost 50% due to weak demand. But here's why this is almost certainly false.

Kuo is claiming that Apple reduced its sales forecast from Vision Pro from a “market consensus” of 700-750K units to 400-450K units, a roughly 40% reduction. […]

The Financial Times, The Information, and The Elec have previously reported that Vision Pro production is heavily constrained by the extremely limited supply of micro-OLED displays. All three sources reported that Sony, the supplier, can only produce enough micro-OLED displays for less than half a million headsets in 2024. Given this, why would this claimed “market consensus” be 700-750K headset units in the first place? It simply doesn’t make sense.

With a $3500 entry price Apple Vision Pro was never going to be a breakout mass market hit. […] But Vision Pro’s price is dictated by its production and supply constraints, and it’s those constraints limiting its volume, not lower than expected demand.