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Summary
Kim Jong Un’s alignment with Putin, bolstered by reported North Korean support for Russia’s Ukraine invasion, complicates China’s regional strategy, raising fears of instability at its borders.
Xi Jinping seeks control over North Korea but faces challenges as Kim favors Russia over China, heightening tensions in East Asia.
With South Korea considering nuclear options and U.S. interests intensifying, Beijing is caught between strategic ambitions and the destabilizing effects of the Putin-Kim alliance.
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I don’t see how this is causing instability around North Korea. China has long dealt with North Korea like a troublemaker little brother.
From reading the article, it’s possible nuclear arms race, military tech transfer, and refugee crisis to name a few:
But Kim’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric against Seoul has the South once again debating whether it should have its own nuclear arsenal. North Korean troops on a Ukrainian battlefield would only further unravel Beijing’s plans.
…
Experts say Beijing is just as worried as the West about what military technology Putin might sell to Kim in exchange for troops.
“Satellites, for sure,” Mr Foster-Carter says. “But Putin is bad – not mad. Russia knows just as China knows that North Korea is a loose cannon. Giving [Kim] more technology for nukes is not a good thing for anybody.”
Experts believe Xi is unlikely to do anything drastic because China needs a stable North Korea – if he cuts off aid, he would likely have a refugee crisis at the border.
Aren’t “satellites” basically just NK’s code for building ICBMs with longer range?
I really don’t see NK committing significant troops for anything else.
That’s exactly right.
Overall, the article just reflects the long standing situation - China’s never really been in control of or comfortable with North Korea. Rather, it was always just seen as the “least bad” option out of a bunch of seemingly bad ones…
