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- cross-posted to:
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Summary
As Middle Eastern leaders gather in Saudi Arabia, many speculate on how a Trump presidency could impact the region.
Unlike Europe’s wariness, Gulf nations view Trump as a stabilizing force. His previous administration’s hawkish stance on Iran and close alignment with Israel, including the Abraham Accords, won favor with Gulf allies.
However, the region has since shifted; Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties, signaling a cautious thaw in hostilities.
A Trump return could intensify anti-Iran actions, but recent Saudi-Iran rapprochement introduces new complexities to regional dynamics.
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I can’t see how his extremely pro-Israel stance would be considered a stabilizing force by anyone but Israel.
I can see how the Saudis would be pretty happy about Trump coming in again. He and his family got pretty cozy with them the first time. And Trump is very hostile to Iran, who are Saudi Arabia’s main rival in that part of the Muslim world.
Happy, maybe. But a stabilizing force? Even the Saudis must know his presence on the Middle East stage will not be stabilizing.
Israel is not alone in the region anymore. The middle east is bipolar now, and Israel is well established in the anti-Iran coalition. I wouldn’t call this “stabilizing”, but if the actual fighting is contained to Israel, Iran, and Iranian proxies, that is good for the rest of the anti-Iran coalition.
Sucks for Israel, but when your political leadership is fighting with military leadership because the latter is not sufficiently hawkish, I don’t think “stability” is the policy objective said leadership is actually pursuing.
