Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko thus far appears to have kept his nation out of the worst of the spiraling war engulfing his neighbors to the east and south.

Summary

Belarus, under President Lukashenko, has backed Russia’s war in Ukraine while avoiding direct involvement. However, Russian drone flights over Belarus (151 in November) are increasing risks.

Opposition groups say Lukashenko cannot control Russian actions, undermining his neutrality claims. Crashes on Belarusian soil have sparked domestic unease and political sensitivity.

Rising drone activity shows Belarus being used as a Russian military base, further involving the country in the war despite public opposition.

This also raises security concerns for NATO nations, with Belarus acting as a gateway for Russian strikes.