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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
Talk to someone who went on previous trips on the Titan submersible and they’re likely to mention a technology glitch. The propulsion system failed or the communications with people on the surface cut out. They are also likely to mention Stockton Rush. He’s the OceanGate Expeditions CEO who died this week on the sub. Rush has been described as both a meticulous planner and an overconfident pioneer. In the wake of the Titan’s fatal implosion Sunday near the Titanic shipwreck, some passengers from previous expeditions described concerning experiences that foreshadowed the tragedy. Still, others felt they were in “good hands” deep below the ocean’s surface.
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Over cigars one night, Rush told Weissmann that he got the carbon fiber for the Titan’s hull at a big discount because it was past its shelf-life for use in airplanes, Weissmann said. But Rush reassured him it was safe.
Death by hubris
Huh, I didn’t even know carbon fiber had a shelf life, I figured it’d be pretty stable over time.
Here’s the reason why, in case anyone’s curious (I know I was):
Fabrics and prepregs also degrade gradually over time. In composite laminates it is not the fiberglass, carbon fiber or Kevlar fibers themselves that initially degrade. It is the sizing or fiber primer however that degrades over time. Sizings are placed upon the fibers to make them more compatible with a given resin system during cure. As time goes on fiber sizings diminish, weakening the future link between the fabric and the resin, thus yielding a possibly weaker composite laminate.
The exact storage life of most sized fabrics is not always listed on a technical data sheet. Often one may need to research further into a manufacturer’s technical manuals for an expected shelf life of a fabric sizing. Fiber sizing life can range from a year to beyond five when stored under favorable conditions. For prepreg materials a general shelf life is first a year. After a year or after initial expiration some fabrics and prepregs may be re-tested for performance against its original stated performance specifications and bonding characteristics. In the case of a DIY project possibly using expired fabrics it is important to test a laminated section of the expired fabric to ensure its quality is up to par for its intended use.
wait wait wait. Does that mean carbon fiber bike frames are likely to bust in a crash after a few years??!!!
are you going to be biking in water deeper than 1500 ft?
If I buy this now I don’t want to rule out the possibility I may do that one day.
so the storage life assumes being under 1500 ft of water??? (edited. sorry guys was playing with settings and put the one that auto adds ats. going to take that back out.)
They are known to be more fragile than frames and forks made of other materials. They need to be checked regularly for tiny fractures that could lead to a sudden collapse, and if they get hit from the side they can be more easily damaged since the tubes are designed for longitudinal strength. I’m sticking to aluminium.
Well hot damn, glad I didn’t get a CF hybrid bike. I was thinking about a CF fork upgrade for my bike, but I think I’ll just burn the extra calories instead hahaha
ty sir. that makes it not so bad. still I have had some bikes for decades. I was never able to afford carbon fiber anyway but now I think I will avoid even if it became cheap. sorta wish the carboard bike had become a thing though.
This is part of why some of us never stopped riding steel frame bikes.
They are likely to bust in a crash, period. But without any crashes, yes, they degrade over years of sunlight and exposure to the elements, and that is something that you should always calculate in your risk assessment of the bike that you ride.
Death by hubris
“I’m just like Tony Stark, making a sub out of a box of scraps!”
Seems like another case where his aerospace background served him poorly as well. It was almost like he thought, “Well, there’s not going to be any torsional stresses on a simple tube or exposure to radiation like there’d be at altitude. So let’s look at the strength of the composite, the pressure at the Titanic’s depth, and build the tube one centimeter thicker than than the table says you need. See? Water is easy-peasy!”
If a material is known to have a component of it degrade over time, why on earth would you use an expired material in an application that at its prime it’s already not suitable for?!
It’s in line with other behaviour he showed tbh. Like he acted like rules, regulations and warnings are kind of pointless or at least are overly careful. So probably he thought “this still works, it isnt broken so they’re probably just not using it because they’re overly cautious.” Or MAYBE he thought “well its only gonna be used for a few hours at a time, and by the time it gets too bad to use i will have made enough money to buy better and make a replacement.” On news on TV a reporter said that guy told he wanted to be an astronaut before but was not allowed bc of his eyesight?+ Maybe that was a regulation that he thought was “pointless,” stopped him from doing what he really wanted, and he just never got over it. Which is a bit sad if so but not excuse…
Weird is some people who are alive who like him being like “nooo he was always so careful about everything how could this happen.” I think he was just good at rationalizing his actions and explaining them in a way that convinced those people but that doesn’t mean he actually was using a perspective of safety even if he framed it that way.
+(Interview from 2017. Funny is back then he said the price is like 105,000 dollars per person, which less than half of what those people paid the last time. Also in the interview he didnt say why he didnt get to be an astronaut, it was a reporter who said he told him he didnt get to because of his eyesight but in this interview he just said that he wanted to be an astronaut but this is like exploring another planet and he wanted to for his whole life.)
“You know, at some point, safety just is pure waste,” said Rush. “I mean, if you just want to be safe, don’t get out of bed. Don’t get in your car. Don’t do anything. At some point, you’re going to take some risk, and it really is a risk/reward question. I think I can do this just as safely by breaking the rules.”
Remember that he fired a whistleblower and had the security escort the guy out. He killed 4 people who trusted him.
I kinda want to make a sign out of that (with proper attribution and a watermark of the Titan sub) and put it on our manufacturing floor.
If you put this forward on the 3d printing sub, they might just make a monument out of it
Looking back, Weissmann believes Rush had a fatal flaw: overconfidence in his engineering skills and the perception that he was a pioneer in an area that others weren’t because they were sticking to the rules.
Dude learned the very hard way that “the rules” were there for a reason. That reason being even don’t follow them, your sub fricking implodes.
Sadly, he didn’t get a chance to learn from his mistake. Hopefully others will, however.
I think almost every trip on the sub had technical issues. He didn’t seem to learn from any of those instances. If anything he kept doubling down.
If anything he kept doubling down.
Hmmmmm…seems awfully similar to another sinking ship that we all know…
I think he had (I think it’s called survivorship bias? Can it be survivorship bias if someone applies it to their own self?) Or just thinking he is untouchable or exception. I am not saying all rich people or their child are like this, but he came from a rich family and sometime people like him get a bit insulated to think anything wrong can happen to them, or they would have a way out all the time.
A lot of people say “If it’s stupid and it works, it isn’t stupid!” when really what that means is you’ve just gotten lucky so far.
I think others already did. As James Cameron pointed out in his interviews, this is an engineering problem that has already been solved. Other people use submersibles that have been tested and certified for the appropriate depths and properly maintained, so they don’t have to worry about the integrity of their vehicles when they dive.
and those cost a lot more money than this idiots sub. its not that he was trying to solve a problem that has never been solved, he was trying to do it for the cheapest cost and paid the ultimate price. its why he had a camping world handle and a cheap logitech controller and construction equipment as ballast and apparently got old cf from boeing.
This story just keeps getting crazier and crazier.
I was watching some videos about Victor Vescovo, another rich businessman who dives to the very deepest parts of the ocean (three times deeper than the Titanic, in some cases). He uses this submersible:
https://tritonsubs.com/subs/t36000-2/
Looking at that, it is very obviously the product of a lot of thoughtful design, expertise in materials and engineering, and rigorous testing and certification processes. Everyone in the industry knew that the OceanGate submersible was not fit for purpose, and they warned Stockton Rush repeatedly, but he thought he knew better than them all. Turns out, he didn’t.
James Cameron also has done these dives a lot of times in a submersible he himself built.
CREW COMPARTMENT HULL THICKNESS
90 mm / 3.54 in
Titanium Alloy
Now that seem legit.
Everyone is an expert in hindsight
some passengers from previous expeditions described concerning experiences that foreshadowed the tragedy. Still, others felt they were in “good hands” deep below the ocean’s surface.
This is the DUMBEST fffkin’ timeline ever.
I hate this timeline.
I want out.
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