cross-posted from: https://fedinews.net/m/ImproveTheNews/t/5112

• US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Mike Hammer stated at the Doha Forum on Monday that Sudan’s Army Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), have agreed to a cease-fire and a one-to-one meeting to end their months-long conflict. The National
• This follows a statement from East Africa’s regional bloc, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), that the warring generals committed to sign a cessation of hostilities and hold political dialogue within 15 days to pave the way for further confidence-building measures. RFI
• It’s unclear, however, whether the proposed actions will effectively take place. The RSF said its acceptance was on condition that Burhan didn’t attend the meeting in his capacity of head of state, while Sudan’s army-aligned Foreign Ministry hasn’t acknowledged the statement due to its failure to make the meeting conditional on a permanent cease-fire and withdrawal of RSF troops from Khartoum. Reuters (LR: 3 CP: 5)
• On Sunday, explosions were seen at the major al-Jaili oil refinery on the outskirts of Khartoum and casualties were reported when a Red Cross convoy came under fire in the capital city. Several peace efforts, including US and Saudi-brokered indirect talks, have failed as both sides have pressed on their military campaigns. Al Jazeera (LR: 2 CP: 1)
• Meanwhile, the state-run SUNA news agency reported that Sudan declared 15 diplomats working in the embassy of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) persona non grata, ordering them to leave the war-torn country within 48 hours. No reason was given for this move. Bloomberg
• Though the UAE has hosted both Burhan and Dagalo for talks, media reports have alleged that the country has backed the RSF in the conflict that has reportedly killed up to 9K people as of October to protect its own business interests in Sudan, including in agriculture and a Red Sea port. Associated Press (LR: 3 CP: 5)

Pro-establishment narrative:

• Despite US and Saudi-led efforts to halt violence, the warring sides have failed to agree on a truce so far. Therefore, this much-expected one-to-one meeting is likely to be a crucial step toward peace before foreign military influence from the Russian Wagner Group and the UAE further deepens the rivalry at the core of a crisis that has displaced millions amid fears of a regional spread of the conflict.
  Global Conflict Tracker

Establishment-critical narrative:

• Sudan’s problems stem not from local warring factions who pop up out of nowhere — or even from Russia and the UAE — but rather from Western meddling dating back a century or more. The West, which is so “kindly” offering assistance today, has toyed with Sudan for decades solely to steal its resources and combat China’s rise in the region, even supporting South Sudanese secession since the 1980s.
  Grayzone (LR: 1 CP: 1)

Nerd narrative:

• There’s an 81.5% chance that at least 10K people will die in the Sudan conflict in 2023, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
  Metaculus (LR: 3 CP: 3)