Ehhhhhhh it’s pretty much always been the case that a single poll by itself is very sketchy data. You gotta look at multiple independent polls. If you want to actually predict the election they had all better be from the last few days before voting ends, because most voters don’t make up their mind until the last second.
I’m not talking about single polls, I’m talking about the aggregate of all the polling for the election (although there was one election with only one poll existing for it, the ones that were aggregates of multiple polls were just as bad). It’s not like one poll said +26 and one said +4. They’re usually within a few percentage points of each other.
And these were polls from much much closer to the election than all these polls the media is treating as a big deal for the November election.
Ehhhhhhh it’s pretty much always been the case that a single poll by itself is very sketchy data. You gotta look at multiple independent polls. If you want to actually predict the election they had all better be from the last few days before voting ends, because most voters don’t make up their mind until the last second.
I’m not talking about single polls, I’m talking about the aggregate of all the polling for the election (although there was one election with only one poll existing for it, the ones that were aggregates of multiple polls were just as bad). It’s not like one poll said +26 and one said +4. They’re usually within a few percentage points of each other.
And these were polls from much much closer to the election than all these polls the media is treating as a big deal for the November election.