The US government is telling everybody that inflation is 3.4% per year. That is not correct. Try 14.2% and that’s about right. Source : gold/usd 1 year simple moving average.
The US government is telling everybody that inflation is 3.4% per year. That is not correct. Try 14.2% and that’s about right. Source : gold/usd 1 year simple moving average.
You do have a point there. However, I would also point out that even the government inflation numbers say they are barely dropping and yet rates are the highest they’ve been in 20 years and the banking sector is going to have a big meltdown because of this commercial real estate. So yeah, it’s speculation, but it’s speculation based on data and trends.
But not all data is relevant. For some reason you’re comparing gold and inflation, but gold isn’t a currency (anymore) and thus isn’t really related to inflation.
Gold prices largely reflect concern about the direction of the economy, they don’t reflect currency valuations or costs of things. People move to gold when they think stocks are going to collapse, they don’t move to gold when prices for things go up.
In the words of Warren Buffett (from memory, not a direct quote):
The way I read this is:
So I think gold will see a correction in the next 6 months, and those people will likely flock to stocks. But that depends on economic indicators remaining strong, inflation figures dropping, and bond rates staying steady or dropping a little. Depending on the election outcome, we may see stocks correct a bit as well.
But I don’t think we’ll see a “housing meltdown” because inventory is still low in many areas and new construction isn’t keeping up with demand. I think we’ll see housing level off once builders can catch up and real wages recover from the cash injection in 2020.
So in general, I’m bearish on gold, and “wait and see” on stocks until after the election. None of this impacts my investing strategy though, which is the same as it has always been, it only impacts my speculation budget.