Some proper knife edge seats in there.
Ashford on a 0.08%. If 40000 people turn up, that’s a margin of 32 people.
Or is that 16, since it’s a swing? Either way, 10pm onwards will be interesting!
Some proper knife edge seats in there.
Ashford on a 0.08%. If 40000 people turn up, that’s a margin of 32 people.
Or is that 16, since it’s a swing? Either way, 10pm onwards will be interesting!
Some of these look questionable, but YouGov’s MRP polling has been the most accurate in the past.
My constituency has the Conservatives not only losing, but going down to third!
The danger is that if enough people think this, some may not turn out, thinking “yeah Labour has this in the bag, I don’t need to vote”, which may lead to higher-than-anticipated results for the tories.
There is a case for that, but I think the main driving force for turnout in this election will be the fact that people are just sick of the Conservatives and want to punish them.
Yeah definitely, I don’t think that they’ll actually win. Just that they’ll likely perform better than these polls are suggesting, in part because of the reason I suggested above, and in part because of the more general trend over the last decade of conservatives exceeding polling expectations (possibly due to the so-called “shy tory” effect).
Ouch.