Roughly three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Vice President Kamala Harris should be nominated for the top of their ticket in November, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
Biden’s results came in at an average of -4 to where polling in Oct/November told us he would be. Trump’s results came in at an average of +8 to what we expected from the same polling window.
The data we have says that polls currently over estimate Democratic performance in presidential elections. In estimating polling advantage going into this, we should give Trump +8 like we saw in 2020 (we saw a similar number in 2016). We should give Harris a 0 (no advantage/ disadvantage).
This means that Democrats need to be +8 on Trump in the aggregate to break even. I think this is very very doable, but consider that Biden has been -1 to -10 on Trump for over 500 days. This would translate to a -13 to minus -23 polling disadvantage for Biden. Its why everyone who knows anything has been saying Biden doesn’t stand a chance since December.
Yeah, whoever that is, dont listen to them. They do not know what they are talking about.
Here is the right answer:
https://lemmy.world/post/15291274?scrollToComments=true
Biden’s results came in at an average of -4 to where polling in Oct/November told us he would be. Trump’s results came in at an average of +8 to what we expected from the same polling window.
The data we have says that polls currently over estimate Democratic performance in presidential elections. In estimating polling advantage going into this, we should give Trump +8 like we saw in 2020 (we saw a similar number in 2016). We should give Harris a 0 (no advantage/ disadvantage).
This means that Democrats need to be +8 on Trump in the aggregate to break even. I think this is very very doable, but consider that Biden has been -1 to -10 on Trump for over 500 days. This would translate to a -13 to minus -23 polling disadvantage for Biden. Its why everyone who knows anything has been saying Biden doesn’t stand a chance since December.