Short have lead with this, but the 0.0% and 0.1% numbers ARE based on post-Biden dropout polls. The only two we have from reputable sources.
One put Trump +2 and one put Harris +2. That averages out to 0. I also checked how they both polled Biden in his final month to compare. One put Trump +1 and the other Trump + 5. The average was 3.1 so accounting for that error Harris squeeks out a tiny lead in the adjusted current polls. Sample size is way too small.
I also don’t think the third party shift on it’s own is a make or break factor, but combine that with another nasty war involving Israel, or Ukraine suffers a bad loss(which is uh…not looking good right now, Russia’s about to knock out the main supply road and just encircled the unit guarding it last night), or some media runs with the genocide in Sudan and blames the admin for doing nothing about it, or something goes wrong with the VP(Bad debate against Vance or some sort of scandal), or even something like a refinery blows up in October and gas prices explode election week, and suddenly things are razor thin again.
Short have lead with this, but the 0.0% and 0.1% numbers ARE based on post-Biden dropout polls. The only two we have from reputable sources. One put Trump +2 and one put Harris +2. That averages out to 0. I also checked how they both polled Biden in his final month to compare. One put Trump +1 and the other Trump + 5. The average was 3.1 so accounting for that error Harris squeeks out a tiny lead in the adjusted current polls. Sample size is way too small.
I also don’t think the third party shift on it’s own is a make or break factor, but combine that with another nasty war involving Israel, or Ukraine suffers a bad loss(which is uh…not looking good right now, Russia’s about to knock out the main supply road and just encircled the unit guarding it last night), or some media runs with the genocide in Sudan and blames the admin for doing nothing about it, or something goes wrong with the VP(Bad debate against Vance or some sort of scandal), or even something like a refinery blows up in October and gas prices explode election week, and suddenly things are razor thin again.