538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely US election outcomes.
Alright everyone, 538 is back online after a month of inactivity!
With the US 2024 Presidential Election between sitting Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Donald J Trump coming up on November 5th, I figured I would feature 538’s polling in the community. It is updated every few hours with that new polling data.
I’ll be posting it when I get back to my main machine, but I don’t consider the 538 approach to be monolithic. I’ve got Biden at between a 6-20% percent chance of winning right now.
I agree in terms of when Trump himself is on the ballot. When he is not, the polls tend to be accurate and the republicans tend to lose with the democrats even over-performing. Recent special elections have demonstrated this.
Relative to the polls, republicans over-performed in 2016, lost in 2018, over-performed but still lost in 2020, and underperformed in 2022. To me, it looks like Trump is the anomaly.
So, you are absolutely correct that Trump beats the polls when he is on the ballot. Personally, I usually give Trump an extra 4 points and this is why I am so concerned about the upcoming election. Polling his actual support seems to be almost impossible.
The things that the democrats have working in their favor are related to reproductive rights; Dobbs energized a lot of women to be reliable voters against republicans.
However, Trump’s 34 felony convictions seem to have had the opposite effect where he actually got a bump in the polls! This is yet another situation where Trump is an anomaly, because even just one felony conviction would have been more than enough to end any other politician’s political career.
It remains to be seen whether the battle over reproductive rights is enough to overcome Trump’s ability to defy the polls. Obviously, I hope it is but I personally will not let myself get complacent when it comes to Trump (I made that mistake in 2016!)
Edit 3: unpinning this comment because it’s out of date.
With the US 2024 Presidential Election between
sitting President Joseph R. Bidenpresumptive democrat nominee and sitting Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump coming up on November 5th, I figured I would feature 538’s polling in the community. It is updated every few hours with new polling data.Consider this the 538 Megathread.
Edit: Sitting President Joe Biden suspended his candidacy as of July 19th, 2024. He will speak more about his reasons later this week, and he has endorsed his Vice President, Kamala Harris, to succeed him.
538 still shows Biden as the democrats presumptive nominee, but I expect that will change soon.Anybody have guesses to when 538 updates this to be between Trump and Harris?
It still says Biden lolEdit: It’s now suspended.
Alright, now that 538 is back online, do we have any takes as to how accurate we think it is?
Is it spot on or reasonable? Or, is it still ridiculously wrong the way it was prior to Biden dropping?
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