😲

My top scoring game was 15,299 turns with 561 mobs killed. Let’s just naivily assume it took 5 turns to kill every enemy and the rest was walking. That’s 9,494 steps. Subtract a fifth of that since rat king isn’t until floor five. So, 7,595 steps.

There’s a 2221 in 2222 chance of not dying each step. That’s 99.955%. Raise that (0.99955) to the power of 7,595, and you get a whopping 3.28% chance of actually finishing the game.

You might as well just have the player die 10 steps after waking the rat king. Even if you wait until you have the crown you still have 1/5 the game to go, and the demon halls levels are huge. You kinda just ruined the possibility of getting ratmogrify. Unless giving him the crown negates the curse…? 🤔

EDIT: I did the math with 1/5 the total steps to see your chance of surviving if you waited until you finished floor 20 to wake the rat king, and ignoring the steps to walk back to floor 20. You’d have a 42.5% chance of not dying before you ascend. I say ascend because this save ascended, so it took more steps.

In my last win I didn’t ascend and it took 10,739 turns with 445 mobs killed, so 8,514 estimated steps. Divided by 5 is 1,702. Raise 0.99955 to that power and you have a 46.4% chance of winning after waking the rat king to exchange the crown and then beat yog and end the game. Almost a coin flip!

My method for estimating the number of steps in a game is not great and might be pretty far off.