New polling results are exciting, but no one wins till the ballots are actually cast and counted!
Get registered, help others prep, and volunteer for poll booths if you can.
New polling results are exciting, but no one wins till the ballots are actually cast and counted!
Get registered, help others prep, and volunteer for poll booths if you can.
Dec. '79 was 11 months before the election and only 1 month after the Iran hostage crisis began. A little different from 4 months before the election.
You’re right, it takes time to work a crisis into your favor. My earliest realization that politics was full of shit was when people were claiming that Reagan’s election that day got the hostages free.
The biggest reason this could be comparable is that her campaign is just beginning, so it is early poll time for a Harris-Trump race, even though the idea has been tossed around previously.
The point is still valid, and there’s certainly other examples of statistical predictions and actual voting results being way off. Only one number matters, and it won’t happen if people don’t show up and vote, regardless of the barriers put in place (in America!) to prevent people from voting.
Carter would spend almost all of 1980 hemorrhaging support as a result. By July he was at about 32%, but Reagan hadn’t really gained any favor, and wouldn’t until October.
Yeah this is less ‘Polls don’t matter’ and more ‘Events have impact.’