Looking at the US population distribution (link below), you’ll see that baby boomers are a wider bugle than other generations, meaning they make up a disproportionate piece of the population.

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/05/aging-united-states-population-fewer-children-in-2020.html

Baby boomers are approximately age 60-80 now, and own 38% of homes despite being only 20% of the population. As their population declines over the next 20 years, the generation behind them (Gen X) doesn’t have enough population to need all those homes. As younger generations inherit those homes, many are going to be put up for sale, and it’s possible that demand simply won’t be there.

Millennials seem to be going “all in” on housing right now with a “now or never mentality”. That means many of them will already own homes and won’t necessarily be in the market when the wave of boomer homes hits.

So while I don’t subscribe to this sub’s general sentiment of a constantly-imminent crash, it does seem that the housing price growth rate of recent decades could be in for a general slow-down over the next 2 decades.

  • @Skyrmir
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    English
    11 month ago

    A counter to that will be the trillions in money printing that’s been done and will be done. Housing will most certainly get more affordable, but is unlikely to drop in nominal price to any significant amount.