Idk, when you look at the entire picture, does Trump not have the far easier path to 270 this year? He only has to win 2 states (PA & GA) and that’s it, he wins. Kamala has to win at the minimum 3, and if she loses PA, it becomes even harder for her. Trump could just spend all of his money campaigning in those 2 states and get back in the White House. Yet these odds seem to disagree with me.
Am I trippin?
Regardless of turnout, I just don’t see a 150k margin being overcome in just 4 years. Harris would have to lose an insane amount of voters and Trump would have to gain a lot of voters all within 4 years. I just don’t see him winning that state.
All it takes is for the Muslim vote to stay home.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/04/politics/muslim-americans-biden-michigan/index.html
“Michigan has more than 200,000 Muslim American voters — 146,000 of whom turned out to vote in 2020 –— according to an analysis by Emgage, an organization that seeks to build the political power of Muslim Americans. Biden won Michigan — a state that narrowly went to Donald Trump in 2016 — by 155,000 votes.”
But how many of them actually voted for Biden?
https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213668804/arab-americans-michigan-voters-biden-israel-hamas-palestinians
“AP reported that 64% of Muslims nationwide supported Biden in 2020, while 35% supported Trump. And in heavily Arab American counties in Michigan, voters went for Biden by a little less than 70%.”
So 154,000 voted, 70% for Biden. 107,800 or so.