A large portion of the shift towards Trump comes from two extremely unreliable sources Trafalgar Group, a republican funded polling agency, and Patriot Polling, which is only measuring registered voters not likely voters, and which doesn’t provide any additional details like demographic data (despite adjusting the numbers to account for demographics).

And the Arizona polls you cite are all from the same source. It’s actually kind of weird that they’re the outlier with the tie, because they’re sponsored by a pro-trump group.