Without a cinema-shuttering pandemic or a production-pausing strike in the way, this year’s fall festival season should have felt like a grand return to normal. There were Oscar winners in the mix – Nicole Kidman, Angelina Jolie, Adrien Brody, Ron Howard, Joaquin Phoenix – as well as a host of major biopics and adaptations, making for a robust, awards-friendly lineup on paper.

But with Venice, Telluride and Toronto now out of the way, the Oscar race is far less certain than it usually is at this stage, without a clear Oppenheimer or Everything Everywhere All at Once to bet on.

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After Sundance, the release of big-budget sequel Dune: Part Two saw even stronger reviews than the first (92% vs 83%), which suggested it will probably at least repeat the original’s success at the Oscars, if not outdo it. (Part One picked up six Oscars and was nominated for four others.)

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Seven safe-ish nominee bets

• Ralph Fiennes – best actor, Conclave
• Mikey Madison – best actress, Anora
• Zoe Saldana – best supporting actress, Emilia Pérez
• Brady Corbet – best director, The Brutalist
• Danielle Deadwyler – best supporting actress, The Piano Lesson
• Angelina Jolie – best actress, Maria
• Kieran Culkin – best supporting actor, A Real Pain

Anything stand out for you?