This sequence of events makes a lot of sense.

First, when leaving Reddit, people are going to gravitate towards one of the larger instances. That’s what I personally did. I don’t think I’d say I fully understand Lemmy and the Fediverse now, but I’ve been here long enough to now know more about how the instances thing works.

So second, as the userbase grows and people stay for longer, they learn how this place works. And third, if they dislike moderation or direction or server performance or what have you, they have enough experience to start from another instance or frequent it more and this less.

I expect we’ll see other communities start to grow now, while the larger ones stay relatively constant.