Both the NYT and Nate’s Silver Bulletin forecast a close race. In simulations there are solid likelihoods that if Harris wins, 270 or 276 may be the electoral outcome.

Of course, polling error of 3-4 percent greatly exceeds small bumps in polls.

I’m curious what happens after a close Harris win scenario if results are disputed.

Might it take until SCOTUS weighs in on specific electoral challenges? 2-3 rounds of hand counting ballots?

For example, Nate Silver’s forecast shows MI, WI, NV and gaining .8 to .9 towards Trump in polls but still potentially a Harris win.

At the same time the forecasted margin for must-win states for Trump like NC and Georgia are under 1 percent in Trump’s favor.

These results may all be delayed, likely challenged, and move through state and possibly SCOTUS elections and legal processes.

Source: substack paid subscription to the Silver Bulletin and NYT.