Both the NYT and Nate’s Silver Bulletin forecast a close race. In simulations there are solid likelihoods that if Harris wins, 270 or 276 may be the electoral outcome.
Of course, polling error of 3-4 percent greatly exceeds small bumps in polls.
I’m curious what happens after a close Harris win scenario if results are disputed.
Might it take until SCOTUS weighs in on specific electoral challenges? 2-3 rounds of hand counting ballots?
For example, Nate Silver’s forecast shows MI, WI, NV and gaining .8 to .9 towards Trump in polls but still potentially a Harris win.
At the same time the forecasted margin for must-win states for Trump like NC and Georgia are under 1 percent in Trump’s favor.
These results may all be delayed, likely challenged, and move through state and possibly SCOTUS elections and legal processes.
Source: substack paid subscription to the Silver Bulletin and NYT.
If it goes to the Supreme Court then Donald Trump is going to be president that shouldn’t be a question for anybody that is just a fact.
Personally, I have never been more afraid of an American civil war. No matter who wins, this will not go down well.
I’m not at all an expert but I’d imagine that would put us deeply in clusterfuck territory and it’d take months to sort out.