Nate Silver’s polling tracker now has Trump slightly favored to win (50.2%) the election. While this shift appears small, it has drawn attention because it pushes Trump just past the halfway mark in forecasts for winning the Electoral College.
Silver explains that while Trump’s rise over recent weeks is significant, and his polling model, is designed to minimize overreactions to new data to provide more accurate long-term predictions (i.e., it’s likely a “real” effect), this doesn’t in any way mean Trump “will” win, and the race remains highly competitive, especially in key states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which are critical to determining the outcome.
Definitely. If Harris loses, it’s entirely on her campaigning strategy. I won’t blame the voters. She has had every opportunity to advocate for popular policies that would significantly boost her support and galvanize more voters. Especially on Israel Palestine.
Trump is historically unpopular. His approval rating has stayed steady for years. Even multiple assassination attempts didn’t move the needle, unlike every other instance in American history. People don’t like Trump. But there are only so many voters that will go out of their way to vote for not-Trump.
Walz is a great example of how people respond to popular progressive policies that can meaningfully improve their lived experience. So is Bernie, he’s still popular for even Republican voters, because even they can recognize how those policies like Medicare for All, Raising Minimum Wage, and investments in public services will improve their lives.