Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

cross-posted to:
politics
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Trump Takes Lead in 538 Simulations

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

@credo to

politics • 2 months ago

cross-posted to:
politics
politics

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.

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Absolutely but polls one way get huge upvotes and polls the other get huge downvotes.

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