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- cross-posted to:
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An all-out war could entangle countries around the world and threaten the global economy.
As the number of adversaries that Israel is fighting has piled up over the past year — Hamas in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon — the most worrisome prospect has been the potential for a war with Iran.
The two nations, which do not share a border, have long been waging conflicts by proxy, subterfuge and sabotage. Each of the militant groups Israel is concurrently fighting is backed by Iran. The indirectness was always by design: Despite being regional rivals, each wanted to avoid what was sure to be a costly, existential direct confrontation.
Now, with Israel planning a retaliatory attack after Iran’s ballistic missile barrage of unprecedented scale and scope on Oct. 1, a war seems more likely, alarming the international community and countries in the region.
Here is why a war is so concerning.
Iran’s response was literally unprecedented. No one could have reasonably expected them to react that way based on their past behaviour.
The point though, is that Israel miscalculated. They saw that attack as similar to past actions they’d taken. They didn’t see it as an escalation and, most importantly, they didn’t think Iran would see it that way. They were extremely wrong. Similarly, though based on much less information, I suspect that Iran’s most recent attack wasn’t intended as a massive escalation but as coming right up to the line without crossing it. More saying “we are deadly fucking serious.” It wasn’t taken that way.
The larger point is that two sides that don’t talk to each other making estimates of reactions to violent responses is dangerous as fuck.
Unprecedented? Maybe? But unexpected? You’d have to have been deluded to think Iran was just going to take it. They repeatedly target senior Iranian officials, attacked one of their embassies, and probably some more stuff I’m not remembering. It really speaks to the delusions of the Israel government to not expect something like that. There’s only so much Iran can let slide at the end of the day.
No it definitely was. The first attack from Iran from a few months back was done pretty politely. They let America know it was happening via back channels, sent a limited amount of drones and missiles, and kept damage and casualties to a minimum. The second one didn’t have these kinds of formalities. They wanted to send a very clear message to Israel, and that was that Iran is very capable of hitting Israel if they are forced to. And it had the effect. Look how much deliberation and pause this retaliation had caused. When have we seen Israel overthink something to this extent in the past year?
Yeah, no argument there from me.
You’ve sort of set that up as either that reaction or no reaction. Everyone expected a reaction. Iran and Israel have been at this a long time. Israel expected a reaction similar to their past actions. And they’ve always avoided direct confrontation. I don’t think I saw anyone predicting that response from Iran before it happened.
I’m just skeptical of that. I think their second attack was similar to the first but with less lead time and better weaponry – an amped up version of their initial message which was basically, “don’t fuck with us.”
The main reason I’m skeptical is that I don’t think Iran wants war right now. They had even initially said that Hezbollah was going to responsible for the response. That led to internal debate that was won by more hard line voices. But this really couldn’t be a worse time for war for Iran. They’re probably weaker right now than they’ve ever been. Their economy is terrible and the public hates the government. Their unpopularity led to civil unrest that they violently suppressed, which restored order but increased public dislike of the government. The domestic picture is not rosy right now.
On top of that, their game plan in conflict is to be backed up by their proxies, primarily Hezbollah. That plan is in tatters now. Hamas has probably lost about 75% of their fighters. They’re in no position to be a major threat at the moment. Hezbollah has been weakened and is relatively disorganized compared to a few months ago. They had near absolute trust in Nasrallah and they probably can’t be certain that whoever replaces him will share his level of commitment. The Houthis are further away and are the least reliable of the three. Finally, Iran doesn’t have to lose to lose. Any diminishment of Iran is a relative strengthening of Saudi Arabia that shifts the balance of power in the region.
All of that taken together leads me to think their intention was to put an exclamation mark on their previous message and not dare Israel to go to war with them.
Yes and that was naive of them. That’s the point. It was a very stupid miscalculation on Israel’s part.
Of course they don’t and I fully agree with the reasons you listed in your comment. But at the same time Iran also can’t afford to look weak either. Israel’s attacks preceeding the second Iranian attacks are quite a step up from the usual tit for tat these two countries typically do. Israel repeatedly ramping up their aggression and being surprised when their enemies eventually respond in kind does not tell me they are in the right mindset. Ever since the last attack if theirs Iran has made it very clear that although they don’t want a war they will no longer hold back from protecting what’s theirs. The time for diplomacy is over in their eyes. Like I said above, look at how long Israel is taking to retaliate. They haven’t been this deliberate and cautious ever in the past 12 months.
Hamas and Hezbollah have been hit hard but they’re not out of the fight. Not yet anyway. They’re both still inflicting casualties, especially Hezbollah. Despite Israel’s huge air superiority they have yet to reliably hold any town in Southern Lebanon, although that can change on a whim admittedly. Hezbollahs rockets and drones have also been hitting Israel regularly in places like Haifa and they got damn near to assassinating Netanyahu. These organizations were designed to operate in situations like this. These aren’t political parties, they’re militia groups fighting for their survival and freedom. Killing leaders doesn’t have the effect we in the West are accustomed to.