Israel’s bombing of Lebanon might doom Kamala Harris’s White House chances by tanking Arab American turnout in Michigan.

Until now, the story of Michigan’s role in the election has centered on Arab Americans’ profound discontent with the Democratic Party over Israel’s relentless devastation of Gaza. The war has left deep emotional wounds.

Israel’s recent military incursion into Lebanon feels like another twist of the knife, intensifying the sense of betrayal and alienation of one of the most critical voting constituencies in the country.

Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the presidency will plummet if she loses Michigan, and current polling shows she and Donald Trump are neck and neck there.

In addition to about 9,000 Palestinian Americans, Michigan is home to roughly 82,000 Lebanese Americans — more than any other state. Considering that Hillary Clinton lost Michigan by fewer than 11,000 voters in 2016, Lebanese Michiganders could very well decide the 2024 election.

Come November 5, I think we may look back on the weeks after Israel invaded Lebanon as the moment Harris lost significant ground in the race.

As I sat down to write this, I got a text from a family member back in Michigan, Reema Ghareeb: “I just found out there was a strike three minutes from my cousin’s house.”

She was going to vote for Harris, but now she doesn’t think she can. “I’d never vote for Trump, he’d be worse,” she said, “but in light of what’s happening in Lebanon I have no idea how I can vote for Harris.”

  • EleventhHour
    3•1 day ago

    There are, obviously, MANY other things to consider in this decision: the election, that sweet AIPAC money, and the absurd amounts of Dems who would be alienated because they think Israelis can do no wrong— keep in mind that there are plenty of Democrats who are still bitter about 9/11 and have no compunction about letting their Islamophobia shine bright under the guise of “the war on terrorism”.

    And anyone with even the tiniest bit of political savvy would understand that Kamala would be much more free to do what she wants after the election.

    It’s so horrifically frustrating is the moral absolutist who, despite the literally thousands of reasons why Trump winning would be so very much more horrible, they will do what they can to make sure he wins just because Harris didn’t say one thing they wanted.