Summary
Regardless of Putin’s decision regarding the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is facing a crisis due to factors such as sanctions, a shrinking sovereign wealth fund, and a labor shortage. The war has boosted growth, but Russia cannot sustain it without significant economic consequences.
Not only there is almost no possible scenario of him winning by any possible sane metric, there is no reality when Russia is recovering from this shit without fundamental changes. Whatever win can be, it’s impossible and wouldn’t help.