It’s how we’ve reacted to their aggression so far.
The United States really does not want to get into a direct conflict with Russia. There’s no question that we’d win any kind of conventional conflict but the American people have no desire for another land war in Europe. We’ve been there and done that, twice, and while I think we would support our European cousins for a 3rd go around getting support for it would require that the Europeans commit themselves first.
On a tangent but speaking frankly Europe as a whole needs to plan for dwindling support from the United States. Regardless of who wins the 2024 US elections the voting demographics of the United States are changing fast. There are literally tens of millions of current and near future immigrants from all over the world who will never care about European security as much as the current voters do. Why would they? Why should they?
The average immigrant from Asia or Latin America will not have ancestral ties to Europe and as their impact on US politics grows it’s inevitable that US support for European shenanigans will dwindle. As voters they will push the US Government to care far more about what’s happening in India, Mexico, Guatemala, Venezuela, and various countries on the African continent.
This is going to happen even if the United States elects nothing but Progressive Politicians for the next 10 election cycles and Europe needs to prepare for it.
The people don’t, but the geopolitical structure does.
So, we spent, literally a decade trying to squish China and Russia together as allies, because Russia is the shittiest ally you can have, and, much like in WW1, you can guarantee both erratic foreign policy and failure on the battlefield (Russia being Austria-Hungary in this case, as the Germans called it “being shackled to a corpse”), while also enabling isolation of both (Russia has a lot of enemies, like … basically everybody hates them and wants to see them suffer).
You are 100% correct Europe needs to stand up and deal with this, and that was the plan, but between China’s reticence to act and their current economic woes, and Russia’s general failure in combat (they were never expected to be this weak), the US is actually in a position to act, maybe not sending in boots on the ground, but air and drone support.
The key is the Sino-Russian axis being isolated and weakened before anything meaningful happens. Nobody wants a real war, the goal is a cold war that results in China and Russia grumbling loudly at how mean the west is to them. That’s working btw, it’s going well, aided by China’s economic issues and Xi’s obsession with domestic power over all else.
The alternative is an actual hot war, and that’s a lot worse for everybody.
I know the reaction is to think “why can’t we all get along?” but the problem is, the stakes for states, are impossibly high, life and death, so you have to always play the right move, because other states will act in their own brutal self-interest (see Russia), and when there’s no higher authority to appeal to, you either make the right move, or you end up on the dustbin of history.
Btw, China is fine with this: Russia ends up wholly reliant, so China can basically get as many resources as they want, and land/food/etc. Over time China eats Siberia, and Russia can’t do anything to stop it, but the oligarchs get paid well for selling out their country. win/win/win.
It’s how we’ve reacted to their aggression so far.
Bullies always assume they’re the strong ones and everyone else knows they’re secretly really weak in comparison.
We watched for years as the nazis rampaged across Europe, it hurts to watch that again.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17?wprov=sfla1
The United States really does not want to get into a direct conflict with Russia. There’s no question that we’d win any kind of conventional conflict but the American people have no desire for another land war in Europe. We’ve been there and done that, twice, and while I think we would support our European cousins for a 3rd go around getting support for it would require that the Europeans commit themselves first.
On a tangent but speaking frankly Europe as a whole needs to plan for dwindling support from the United States. Regardless of who wins the 2024 US elections the voting demographics of the United States are changing fast. There are literally tens of millions of current and near future immigrants from all over the world who will never care about European security as much as the current voters do. Why would they? Why should they?
The average immigrant from Asia or Latin America will not have ancestral ties to Europe and as their impact on US politics grows it’s inevitable that US support for European shenanigans will dwindle. As voters they will push the US Government to care far more about what’s happening in India, Mexico, Guatemala, Venezuela, and various countries on the African continent.
This is going to happen even if the United States elects nothing but Progressive Politicians for the next 10 election cycles and Europe needs to prepare for it.
The people don’t, but the geopolitical structure does.
So, we spent, literally a decade trying to squish China and Russia together as allies, because Russia is the shittiest ally you can have, and, much like in WW1, you can guarantee both erratic foreign policy and failure on the battlefield (Russia being Austria-Hungary in this case, as the Germans called it “being shackled to a corpse”), while also enabling isolation of both (Russia has a lot of enemies, like … basically everybody hates them and wants to see them suffer).
You are 100% correct Europe needs to stand up and deal with this, and that was the plan, but between China’s reticence to act and their current economic woes, and Russia’s general failure in combat (they were never expected to be this weak), the US is actually in a position to act, maybe not sending in boots on the ground, but air and drone support.
The key is the Sino-Russian axis being isolated and weakened before anything meaningful happens. Nobody wants a real war, the goal is a cold war that results in China and Russia grumbling loudly at how mean the west is to them. That’s working btw, it’s going well, aided by China’s economic issues and Xi’s obsession with domestic power over all else.
The alternative is an actual hot war, and that’s a lot worse for everybody.
I know the reaction is to think “why can’t we all get along?” but the problem is, the stakes for states, are impossibly high, life and death, so you have to always play the right move, because other states will act in their own brutal self-interest (see Russia), and when there’s no higher authority to appeal to, you either make the right move, or you end up on the dustbin of history.
Btw, China is fine with this: Russia ends up wholly reliant, so China can basically get as many resources as they want, and land/food/etc. Over time China eats Siberia, and Russia can’t do anything to stop it, but the oligarchs get paid well for selling out their country. win/win/win.