The most promising competitor is Apple, but the Vision Pro flopped as I predicted in 2023. Hopes are now pinned on a cheaper version of the mixed reality headset, which could be delayed beyond 2027, according to the latest claim from supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

Whether this is true or not is irrelevant in my opinion. Even with a device that costs half as much as the Vision Pro, Apple is unlikely to steal much market share from Meta. I am convinced that there is no significant market for VR headsets above $500. For that to happen, they have to become general-purpose devices that can compete with desktop computers and laptops, and they are a long way from that.

Where there is no significant market, there are no developers. Where there are no developers, there are no apps. And where there are no apps, there are no consumers to create a significant market. Meta has made huge investments to create a VR ecosystem that can support many developers. Apple, on the other hand, just built a very expensive VR headset with no discernible market strategy and no plan to help developers.

What about other competitors?

HTC lacks the resources to keep up with Meta Pico owner Bytedance recently scaled back VR investments Valve hasn’t released a VR headset in more than five years Sony didn’t have much success with Playstation VR 2, and PSVR 3 is years away (if Sony plans to continue supporting its VR ecosystem). Samsung and Google are working on a pricey mixed reality headset that has yet to be unveiled and will likely suffer the same fate as the Apple Vision Pro due to its high price tag The reason Meta is the market leader after ten years and will remain so for a long time is that Meta is willing to invest billions in these technologies for years and perhaps decades to come, regardless of the losses, while other companies push for short and medium term profits and give up when they don’t see a return on their investment (I certainly hope Apple isn’t one of them, but we will see).