Even Apple is finding it challenging to maintain an aggressive leading edge node adoption cadence.
Semiconductors performance is going to keep improving (in addition to fabrication nodes, we also have advanced packaging and new materials), there is just too much economic incentive around this area. That being said, it does seem costs are rising rapidly.
According to this source, TSMC’s price per wafer increased from $4K in late 2015 to $17K in 2020. Current 3 nm wafer pricing is rumoured to be at ~$20K and 2nm wafer pricing is expected to be around $30K.
Of course, there are many other elements that contribute to the cost of manufacturing a semiconductor, but fab costs are on a near-exponential growth trajectory.
Even Apple is finding it challenging to maintain an aggressive leading edge node adoption cadence.
Semiconductors performance is going to keep improving (in addition to fabrication nodes, we also have advanced packaging and new materials), there is just too much economic incentive around this area. That being said, it does seem costs are rising rapidly.
According to this source, TSMC’s price per wafer increased from $4K in late 2015 to $17K in 2020. Current 3 nm wafer pricing is rumoured to be at ~$20K and 2nm wafer pricing is expected to be around $30K.
Of course, there are many other elements that contribute to the cost of manufacturing a semiconductor, but fab costs are on a near-exponential growth trajectory.