20 years though? That’s incredibly generous and unlikely imo.
People are refusing to tackle the infrastructure issue of people charging their cars who do not own single family detached homes. It’s a significant population of people for which owning an electric vehicle is a huge inconvenience. Public charging stations exist, but take significantly longer than the 2 minutes it takes to pump gas.
The second big thing is that people simply don’t replace their cars that often. Might be pulling this out of my ass, but I had read recently that the average person replaces their vehicle every 7-12 years…and it is often not with a brand new vehicle. Considering how electric cars still make a very small percentage of those on the road, I can’t see 100% removal of gas vehicles in 20 years in only a few generations of vehicle ownership change.
The Nissan Leaf came out around 15 years ago as the first big name, somewhat popularish electric vehicle. Yet in 2025 electric vehicles are nowhere close to even 50% of vehicles on the road.
In the more distant future? Sure. 20 years ain’t happening tho.
It’s a far different view from this continent. The percentage of EVs is much lower, legacy manufacturers are backtracking on building new EVs, our new fascist regime wants to ban them, and somehow the answer to keeping up with the world is to block it with tariffs. Only like a dozen US states have committed to no new ICE cars after 2035, and that starting to seem very unlikely I’m sure there are already people planning on hoarding dinosaur burners
I just looked up your source. That is of new vehicles sold. While a good start, you’re skipping my latter part about people not replacing their vehicles for a decade. Only 3% of vehicles globally on the road are EVs per the source.
20 years though? That’s incredibly generous and unlikely imo.
People are refusing to tackle the infrastructure issue of people charging their cars who do not own single family detached homes. It’s a significant population of people for which owning an electric vehicle is a huge inconvenience. Public charging stations exist, but take significantly longer than the 2 minutes it takes to pump gas.
The second big thing is that people simply don’t replace their cars that often. Might be pulling this out of my ass, but I had read recently that the average person replaces their vehicle every 7-12 years…and it is often not with a brand new vehicle. Considering how electric cars still make a very small percentage of those on the road, I can’t see 100% removal of gas vehicles in 20 years in only a few generations of vehicle ownership change.
The Nissan Leaf came out around 15 years ago as the first big name, somewhat popularish electric vehicle. Yet in 2025 electric vehicles are nowhere close to even 50% of vehicles on the road.
In the more distant future? Sure. 20 years ain’t happening tho.
But we’ll see!
I don’t think 17% is “a very small percentage”
And I believe 90% of new cars sold in Norway this year were electric
Remember to discount any stats from the US, they’re always at least a decade behind on everything
It’s a far different view from this continent. The percentage of EVs is much lower, legacy manufacturers are backtracking on building new EVs, our new fascist regime wants to ban them, and somehow the answer to keeping up with the world is to block it with tariffs. Only like a dozen US states have committed to no new ICE cars after 2035, and that starting to seem very unlikely I’m sure there are already people planning on hoarding dinosaur burners
I just looked up your source. That is of new vehicles sold. While a good start, you’re skipping my latter part about people not replacing their vehicles for a decade. Only 3% of vehicles globally on the road are EVs per the source.