Ukraine’s defence forces lost control of over 3,600 sq km of territory in 2024, losing more than 20 sq km per day in November. In 2023, they lost a total of about 540 sq km and liberated about 430 sq km.
Ukraine’s losses as a percentage of population are already not so far from what those hypothetical 23mln would feel. Cause Russia’s population is 140mln, and Ukraine’s population was about 40mln, but unfortunately a lot of that number became refugees.
Yes though it seems some formerly friendly to Ukraine countries are becoming less friendly and turning a cynical eye towards Ukrainian refugees. Maybe some of those will return to Ukraine and help in the war effort (or even just help contribute to the economy which helps the war effort indirectly).
You generally get the areas logistically cut off as a bonus, unless they are defended by something like pre-war Azov. And even in that case, despite propaganda advantage, qualified men of Azov could have been used better.
You also start losing territory faster the more your troops are exhausted, and that’s important when your population is a third of your enemy’s population.
And by exhaustion I mean human losses and morale, and general qualifications dropping. Which is why qualified men of Azov and plenty other units could and should have been used to train new mobilization waves better non-stop while Russians had problems.
And damn fucking obviously with such numeric imbalance the late 2023 attempt at an offensive the Soviet way, with numbers and firepower and not brains, shouldn’t have been attempted. That’s the “liberated” number. It was very expensive.
What I mean is that right now Ukraine has manpower shortage.
If I were the God-Emperor of Ukraine and could make any kind of decision, I’d devise a new, far shorter line of contact and undertake mass evacuation beyond and near it. I’d perform a planned, organized, in many well thought-out small steps, retreat towards it (preferably laying minefields as vast as life in process). And I’d squeal all over the world that I’m losing the damned war, because if Russia doesn’t just implode soon, that will happen.
One ironic thing is - if Russia wins the war, it will soon probably have a coup, or even a restoration of democracy. But Ukraine can’t allow Russia to win the war for it to lose the war.
20 square km? Wow at that rate, Russia will have conquered all 233.000 square km of Ukraine by 2057.
Yes and Russia is losing 100 soldiers per square km (2000 casualties per day). By 2057 they will have lost 23 million soldiers!
Ukraine’s losses as a percentage of population are already not so far from what those hypothetical 23mln would feel. Cause Russia’s population is 140mln, and Ukraine’s population was about 40mln, but unfortunately a lot of that number became refugees.
Yes though it seems some formerly friendly to Ukraine countries are becoming less friendly and turning a cynical eye towards Ukrainian refugees. Maybe some of those will return to Ukraine and help in the war effort (or even just help contribute to the economy which helps the war effort indirectly).
People most of all care for their families.
Yes and that’s such an important part of returning home: reuniting with your family.
That was the plan from the beginning… “It will only take 3 daycades”, they said.
You generally get the areas logistically cut off as a bonus, unless they are defended by something like pre-war Azov. And even in that case, despite propaganda advantage, qualified men of Azov could have been used better.
You also start losing territory faster the more your troops are exhausted, and that’s important when your population is a third of your enemy’s population.
And by exhaustion I mean human losses and morale, and general qualifications dropping. Which is why qualified men of Azov and plenty other units could and should have been used to train new mobilization waves better non-stop while Russians had problems.
And damn fucking obviously with such numeric imbalance the late 2023 attempt at an offensive the Soviet way, with numbers and firepower and not brains, shouldn’t have been attempted. That’s the “liberated” number. It was very expensive.
What I mean is that right now Ukraine has manpower shortage.
If I were the God-Emperor of Ukraine and could make any kind of decision, I’d devise a new, far shorter line of contact and undertake mass evacuation beyond and near it. I’d perform a planned, organized, in many well thought-out small steps, retreat towards it (preferably laying minefields as vast as life in process). And I’d squeal all over the world that I’m losing the damned war, because if Russia doesn’t just implode soon, that will happen.
One ironic thing is - if Russia wins the war, it will soon probably have a coup, or even a restoration of democracy. But Ukraine can’t allow Russia to win the war for it to lose the war.