Fwiw if you want to discuss this, there are threads about it on [email protected] and (via a YouTube video that seems to be made by the author of the article) [email protected].
Unfortunately the conclusion it reaches really isn’t supported by the data. The author does himself good credit by acknowledging some of the shortcomings for himself, though he then ignores that in the main analysis. Fundamentally, it relies too much on opinion polling when the actual voter turnout tells a stronger story.
Fwiw if you want to discuss this, there are threads about it on [email protected] and (via a YouTube video that seems to be made by the author of the article) [email protected].
https://aussie.zone/post/16925110
https://aussie.zone/post/16920713
Unfortunately the conclusion it reaches really isn’t supported by the data. The author does himself good credit by acknowledging some of the shortcomings for himself, though he then ignores that in the main analysis. Fundamentally, it relies too much on opinion polling when the actual voter turnout tells a stronger story.